| 大地震的18.6年周期 |
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| 引用本文： | 杜品仁,赵俊猛,高祥林.大地震的18.6年周期[J].地球物理学报,2011,54(9):2256-2262. |
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| 作者姓名： | 杜品仁 赵俊猛 高祥林 |
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| 作者单位： | 1. 中国地震局地质研究所,北京 100029;
2. 中国科学院青藏高原研究所,北京 100085 |
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| 基金项目： | 国家重点基础研究项目(973)(2008CB425704)资助. |
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| 摘 要： | 将全球分为15个研究区,用1900~2009年MW≥7.0地震目录,统计分析了各区大地震与月球交点运动周期的关系,得出15个研究区中有10个区,大地震存在统计意义上的18.6 a周期:活跃段为12.4 a,平静段为6.2 a;环太平洋地震带北、南、西、东4大区的大地震,不仅有这样的周期,而且其地震活跃段的时间存在一定规律.用第6个18.6 a(1991~2009年)期间的大地震,检验据前5个18.6 a(1900~1990年)地震目录所得18.6 a 周期的稳定性和实用性,发现有这种周期的地区多数的周期性是稳定的.大地震18.6 a周期的可能成因有: (1)18.6 a潮波通过调制日潮和半日潮调制大地震; (2)上地幔内流体的潮汐(地内潮)作用; (3)18.6 a潮波通过影响地球自转变化调制大地震.
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| 关 键 词： | 月球交点运动 板块 地震活跃段 2检验 地球自转 |
| 收稿时间： | 2010-12-20 |
The 18.6-year periodicity of great earthquakes |
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| DU Pin-Ren,ZHAO Jun-Meng,GAO Xiang-Lin.The 18.6-year periodicity of great earthquakes[J].Chinese Journal of Geophysics,2011,54(9):2256-2262. |
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| Authors: | DU Pin-Ren ZHAO Jun-Meng GAO Xiang-Lin |
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| Institution: | 1. Institute of Geology, China Earthquake Administration, Beijing 100029, China;
2. Institute of Tibetan Plateau Research, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100085, China |
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| Abstract: | Dividing the world into 15 study areas and using the earthquake catalogue of MW≥7.0 during 1900~2009, we make a statistical analysis of the relationship between seismicity of each area and the period of lunar nodal motion. The result shows that among the 15 areas, 10 areas exhibit an 18.6-year cycle of great earthquakes in statistical sense, which consists of a 12.4-year active section and a 6.2-year quiet section. In the eastern, northern, southern and western areas of the Circum-Pacific seismic belt, such a periodicity is present and their active sections have certain regularity. In terms of seismic events during the sixth cycle (1991~2009), this study has tested the stability and applicability of the 18.6-year periodicity derived from earlier five cycles (1900~1990). It is found that most of periodicities are stable in the regions with such characters. The possible mechanisms of the 18.6-year periodicity are as follows: (1) Earthquakes are modulated by the 18.6-year tide via day and half-day tides. (2) Effect of fluid tide in upper mantle (tide within the Earth). And (3) earthquakes are dictated by 18.6-year tide through variation of Earth rotation. |
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| Keywords: | Lunar nodal motion Plate Active section of earthquakes 2 test Earth rotation |
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