| 用去趋势涨落分析研究北京气候的长程变化特征 |
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| 引用本文： | 郑祚芳,张秀丽,曹鸿兴,谢庄,潘家华.用去趋势涨落分析研究北京气候的长程变化特征[J].地球物理学报,2007,50(2):420-424. |
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| 作者姓名： | 郑祚芳 张秀丽 曹鸿兴 谢庄 潘家华 |
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| 作者单位： | 1.中国气象局北京城市气象研究所，北京 100089 2 空军气象中心，北京 100843 3 中国气象科学研究院，北京 100081 4 中国社会科学院，北京 100732 |
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| 基金项目： | 科技部社会公益类重点项目(2003DIA6N017)，北京自然科学基金(8042012)资助 |
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| 摘 要： | 无标度性广泛存在于自然界系统包括气候系统中，其特征之一是可观测量存在幂函数关系，它揭示了气候系统的复杂性.为探索气候可预测性的客观基础，运用去趋势涨落分析(DFA)方法对北京1870～2003 年平均气温和1725～2003年降水序列进行了分析.结果表明，北京年平均气温和降水量均可划分为多个标度不变区域.在特定的标度域内，它们都表现出正长程相关的性质，为制作年际与年代际气候预测提供了理论基础.
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| 关 键 词： | 北京 气候变化 无标度性 去趋势涨落分析 |
| 文章编号： | 0001-5733（2007）02-0420-05 |
| 收稿时间： | 2005-12-8 |
| 修稿时间： | 2005-12-08 |
Characteristics of long-term climate change in Beijing with detrended fluctuation analysis |
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| ZHENG Zuo-Fang,ZHANG Xiu-Li,CAO Hong-Xing,XIE Zhuang,PAN Jia-Hua.Characteristics of long-term climate change in Beijing with detrended fluctuation analysis[J].Chinese Journal of Geophysics,2007,50(2):420-424. |
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| Authors: | ZHENG Zuo-Fang ZHANG Xiu-Li CAO Hong-Xing XIE Zhuang PAN Jia-Hua |
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| Institution: | 1.Institute of Urban Meteorology, CMA， Beijing 100089， China 2 Air Force Meteorological Center， Beijing 100843， China 3 Chinese Academy of Meteorological Science， Beijing 100081， China 4 Chinese Academy of Social Sciences， Beijing 100732， China |
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| Abstract: | In order to investigate the observational basis of the climate predictability, with the detrended fluctuation analysis (DFA) the long_term variations of the temperature and the precipitation in Beijing have been investigated. Non_scaling exists widely in the nature system, including the climate system; one of its features is a power function existing in an observable quantity, which represents the complex of the climate system. Based on the DFA, the calculations for annual temperatures during 1870 to 2003 and precipitations during 1725 to 2003 were conducted, and it is found that there are several ranges where their scaling is unchangeable; in the specific ranges, the time series of the temperature and the precipitation exhibit a positive long_term correlation feature, that provides a theoretical basis for interannual and interdecadal predictions. |
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| Keywords: | Beijing Climate change Scaling uncorrelation Detrended fluctuation analysis |
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