| 应用九层全球大气格点模式进行跨季度短期气候预测系统性试验 |
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| 引用本文： | 郎咸梅,王会军,姜大膀.应用九层全球大气格点模式进行跨季度短期气候预测系统性试验[J].地球物理学报,2004,47(1):19-24. |
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| 作者姓名： | 郎咸梅 王会军 姜大膀 |
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| 作者单位： | 中国科学院大气物理研究所NZC/LASG,北京,100029;中国科学院大气物理研究所NZC/LASG,北京,100029;中国科学院大气物理研究所NZC/LASG,北京,100029 |
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| 基金项目： | 国家杰出青年基金项目 (4 0 12 5 0 14 )，中国科学院知识创新工程重要方向性项目(KZCX2 2 0 3 )，国家重点基础研究规划项目(G19980 40 90 5 ) |
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| 摘 要： | 利用中国科学院大气物理研究所9层大气环流模式（IAP9L AGCM）对夏季气候进行了30年（ 1970～1999年）集合回报试验，并采用统计学分析方法对跨季度夏季短期气候的可预测性问 题进行了初步探讨. 结果表明，该模式对对流层中、高层大气环流的预测能力强于低层，位 势高度场和表面气温的可预测性最大，而降水的可预测性则相对较小. 对流层中、高层位势 高度场的可预测性基本呈带状分布，越靠近赤道可预测性越高；而降水的可预测性基本局限 于赤道东太平洋及热带个别区域. 由此可见，降水的预测极为困难和复杂，订正系 统的研究和寻找新的预报物理因子非常重要.
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| 关 键 词： | IAP9L-AGCM 集合回报 跨季度短期气候预测 可预测性 |
| 文章编号： | 0001-5733(2004)01-0019-06 |
| 收稿时间： | 2002-10-28 |
| 修稿时间： | 2003-8-18 |
Extraseasonal Short-Term Predictions of Summer Climate With IAP9L-AGCM |
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| LANG Xian Mei WANG Hui Jun JIANG Da Bang,NZC and LASG.Extraseasonal Short-Term Predictions of Summer Climate With IAP9L-AGCM[J].Chinese Journal of Geophysics,2004,47(1):19-24. |
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| Authors: | LANG Xian Mei WANG Hui Jun JIANG Da Bang NZC and LASG |
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| Institution: | NZC and LASG, Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Chinese Academy of Scien ces, Beijing 100029,China |
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| Abstract: | 〓This study examines the predictability of extraseasonal short term climate during boreal summer by statistic method. The results are based on ensembles of JJA simulation carried out with the 9 level A tmospheric General Circulation Model developed in the Institute of Atmospheric P hysics (IAP9L AGCM) for the years 1970～1999. It follows that the ability o f the model in predicting atmospheric general circulation in mid and upper tro posphere is better than that in low level. Of all analyzed variables, the predic tion skill of geopotential height and surface air temperature (precipitation) is the highest (lowest). The correlation coefficient of geopotential height in the mid and upper troposphere is somewhat more zonal in spatial distribution and generally drops off away from the equator, while the prediction skill for preci pitation is almost limited in equatorial eastern Pacific and a few small regions in tropics. This is an indication that accurate forecasting of precipitation is extremely difficult and complicated. Moreover, it is of considerable importance to seeking for effective correction system and new physical prediction factors in the following studies. |
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| Keywords: | IAP9L AGCM Extraseasonal short term climate predictions Ensemble hindcasting Predictability |
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