| 图像信息学(PI)算法计算参数优化分析——以山东及相邻地区为例 |
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| 引用本文： | 张盛峰,郑建常,蒋长胜,吴忠良.图像信息学(PI)算法计算参数优化分析——以山东及相邻地区为例[J].地球物理学报,2017,60(12):4633-4643. |
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| 作者姓名： | 张盛峰 郑建常 蒋长胜 吴忠良 |
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| 作者单位： | 1. 中国地震局地球物理研究所, 北京 100081;2. 山东省地震局, 济南 250014 |
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| 基金项目： | 山东省地震局青年基金项目（JJ1609Y）资助. |
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| 摘 要： | 图像信息学(PI)算法已经成为了地震较活跃地区研究中长期地震危险趋势的重要算法,近年来已被应用于多个国家和地区的地震预测工作中.为进一步探索PI算法在地震活动相对较弱地区的预测效能以及其对地区性差异的依赖情况,本文以山东及邻区为研究区,通过遍历计算模型中网格大小、预测时间窗起点及长度三种参数下的预测结果,并以定量检验算法效能的"ROC值"为统计检验方法,在目标震级ML4.0、ML4.5、ML5.0情况下分别分析不同参数组合下的预测结果,得到了针对本研究区PI算法对几种参数的依赖关系.进一步选取优势参数分布中的参数组合,以回溯性和"向前"预测两种情况分别给出了在相应预测时间窗口内发生目标地震的"热点"分布,最后针对算法的技术及物理问题进行了讨论.本工作探索了不同计算参数对算法预测效能的影响以及PI算法在地震活动相对较弱地区的适用性,简要讨论了不同震级范围表现出来的自相似特征对算法的影响,可为将算法引入到山东地区的地震危险性研究工作提供参考.
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| 关 键 词： | 图像信息学PI算法 地震活动性 参数对比 相对工作特性图表法(ROC) 回溯性和"向前"预测 自相似性 山东及相邻地区 |
| 收稿时间： | 2016-11-26 |
Optimal analysis of parameter settings in pattern informatics (PI) algorithm:An example of Shandong and adjacent areas |
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| ZHANG Sheng-Feng,ZHENG Jian-Chang,JIANG Chang-Sheng,WU Zhong-Liang.Optimal analysis of parameter settings in pattern informatics (PI) algorithm:An example of Shandong and adjacent areas[J].Chinese Journal of Geophysics,2017,60(12):4633-4643. |
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| Authors: | ZHANG Sheng-Feng ZHENG Jian-Chang JIANG Chang-Sheng WU Zhong-Liang |
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| Institution: | 1. Institute of Geophysics, China Earthquake Administration, Beijing 100081, China;2. Shandong Earthquake Agency, Ji'nan 250014, China |
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| Abstract: | Pattern Informatics (PI) algorithm has been developed to be a well-behaved model in assessment of intermediate-term and long-term seismic hazard across the world. To further evaluate the forecasting performance of the PI algorithm in the area covering a relative weaker seismicity and the dependency on different research regions, we use Shandong and its adjacent area as the study region and calculate the forecast results under different parameter settings, including grid size, start time and length of the forecasting window in the PI algorithm. After getting three kinds of results based on different target magnitudes ML4.0, ML4.5 and ML5.0, we modify the ROC test as a quantitative standard, "ROC value", to evaluate the algorithm's performance. Through the above settings, we obtain several combined distributions in which the optimized parameters are located considering the evaluable retrospective and "forward" forecasting results, which are calculated under the chosen parameter settings. In the end, we discuss the physical and technical factors in the algorithm and process. The aim of this work has two aspects, one is to evaluate the performance of the PI algorithm under different parameter settings, the other is to seek the applicability of this model for the area covering relative weaker seismicity considering the self-similarity of different magnitude ranges. From analysis above, this work can provide fundamental references for seismic risk assessment in Shandong and adjacent areas. |
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| Keywords: | Pattern Informatics Algorithm Seismicity Parameter analysis Receiver Operating Characteristic (ROC) Retrospective and ‘forward’ forecasting Self-similarity characteristics Shandong and adjacent region |
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