| HRT地震前兆波及其机制 |
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| 引用本文： | 赵玉林,赵璧如,钱卫,赵国泽,赵健,何世根,张洪魁,李世愚,卢军,钱复业.HRT地震前兆波及其机制[J].地球物理学报,2010,53(3):487-505. |
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| 作者姓名： | 赵玉林 赵璧如 钱卫 赵国泽 赵健 何世根 张洪魁 李世愚 卢军 钱复业 |
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| 作者单位： | 1.中国地震局地球物理研究所, 北京 100081;2.天津海泰光电科技有限公司, 天津 300201;3.Department of Physics, University of Toronto, L6C, 1V9, Canada;4.中国地震局地质研究所, 北京 100029;5.防灾科学技术学院, 河北三河 065201;6.北京市地震局, 北京 100080;7.中国地震台网中心, 北京 100036 |
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| 摘 要： | PS-100仪器是我们研制的抗干扰性能极强的、新一代高精密度地电测量系统.设在川滇地区的一个PS100台网于苏门答腊海啸大地震前记录到HRT前兆波动.本文将主要分析报道来自震源区的这种前兆波，特别是其传播特性.潮汐力驱动的谐和振荡波（HT波）具有与潮汐力相同的周期（如MSf，K1，M2等），但其振幅却仅在震前（约3个月）才出现异常增大；潮汐力驱动的共振振荡波（RT波），出现主震前2天（北京时2004-12-24的10时），RT波分为纵波与横波.初步确定其纵波波速Vl约为307 km/h，横波波速Vs约为126 km/h.它们可能是在地壳多孔岩石孔隙流体中以声模式传播的一类波.对RT波，苏门答腊主震断层系统的固有周期T0约为5~6 h，其幅度可达2.9%（超出观测标准偏差17倍），成为极其显著的异常.RT波通常以突然急剧变化的方式达到其峰值.震源区多孔介质的固体基质骨架与其间孔隙流体的耦合振动满足共振条件时，即从震中区同时发射出（纵、横）RT波.苏门答腊Mw9.0级地震前首次记录到RT波，此后已在20余次强震前记录到HRT波.诸强震前所记的HRT波彼此可以很好地对比，表现出一定的重复性、一致性和规律性.汶川Ms8.0级地震前，当时唯一仍在工作的红格台（距震中465 km），也记录到HRT波.我们还在震前发现红格台于2008年5月12日凌晨（0~5时）记录到与汶川地震有成因联系的、显著临震信息.（从2004年在川滇地区增设PS100台网捕捉地方强震的短临前兆开始，到汶川地震前发现红格台记录到临震信息的）这些事实有力地证明：HRT前兆波是客观存在的；地震，特别是强震是有前兆的；是可以预测、预报的，在不太远的将来，实现强震的短临预报是可行的.如果有一布设合理的PS-100台网，根据震前所记RT波，提前1~3天定量地预测强震的三要素是可能的.
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| 关 键 词： | HRT地震前兆波模型（机制）" target="_blank">face="Verdana">HRT地震前兆波模型（机制） PS100高精密度大地电测系统 20余个强震短临前兆震例 HRT前兆波的重现性与规律性 实现地震预报的可行性 |
| 收稿时间： | 2009-07-06 |
| 修稿时间： | 2010-01-04 |
HRT PRECURSOR WAVE AND ITS MECHANISM |
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| ZHAO Yu-Lin,ZHAO Bi-Ru,QIAN Wei,ZHAO Guo-Ze,ZHAO Jian,HE Shi-Gen,ZHANG Hong-Kui,LI Shi-Yu,LU Jun,QIAN Fu-Ye.HRT PRECURSOR WAVE AND ITS MECHANISM[J].Chinese Journal of Geophysics,2010,53(3):487-505. |
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| Authors: | ZHAO Yu-Lin ZHAO Bi-Ru QIAN Wei ZHAO Guo-Ze ZHAO Jian HE Shi-Gen ZHANG Hong-Kui LI Shi-Yu LU Jun QIAN Fu-Ye |
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| Institution: | 1.Institute of Geophysics, CEA, Beijing 100081, China;2.Tianjin Hi-tech Development Co.Ltd, Tianjin 300201, China;3.Department of Physics, University of Toronto, L6C, 1V9, Canada;4.Institute of Geology, CEA, Beijing 100029, China;5.College of Disaster Prevention Techniques, Yanjiao, Hebei Province 065201, China;6.Earthquake Administration of Beijing Municipality, Beijing 100080, China;7.China Earthquake Network Center, Beijing 100036，China |
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| Abstract: | The PS100 system is a newly developed anti-interference high-precision geoelectric measurement system. A network of PS100 stations in Sichuan and Yunnan, China has recorded the HRT precursor wave to the M_w9.0 Sumatra tsunami earthquake. In this article we only analyze and report the precursor wave from the epicentral area, especially the characteristics of its propagation. Harmonic oscillation waves driven by tidal forces (HT waves) with periods of tidal forces (e.g. MS_f, K_1, M_2, etc) and increased amplitude anomaly had appeared about 3 months before the Sumatra earthquake; resonance oscillation waves driven by tidal forces (RT waves) had appeared 2 days before the earthquake (i.e. 2004-12-24, 10:00 BJT). The RT waves contained longitudinal waves and transverse waves. As preliminarily estimated, velocity of the longitudinal waves was V_l≈307 km/h, and velocity of the transverse waves was V_t≈126 km/h, which were an acoustic mode wave propagating in the pore fluids in the porous rocks of the crust. For the RT waves, the natural period of the fault system was T_0=5～6 h; the amplitude was as large as 2.9% (17 times higher than the standard deviation of the observations), so that the anomaly was very remarkable; the peak change was exceptionally sudden and sharp. The RT waves started from the hypocenter were emitted by the fact that the porous solid network system couples to the fluid in its pores and the condition of resonance is met. This is the first record of precursor wave. Thereafter, we have captured HRT waves from more than twenty strong earthquakes, which are well-matched and show repeatability, consistency and regularity. Before the Wenchuan M_s8.0 earthquake, we recorded the HRT precursor wave at the only operating station in Hongge (HG, Δ=465 km). We found that the significant impending signal has a causal relationship with the Wenchuan earthquake, which recorded at the HG station in the early morning (0～5AM) of 12th/May/2008. These facts demonstrated that the HRT precursor waves do exist and an earthquake, particularly a strong earthquake, has precursors, and it is predictable. Short-term or impending earthquake prediction is feasible in the near future. If we have a reasonably designed network of PS100 stations, it will be possible to quantitatively predict the three factors of certain strong earthquakes 1～3 days in advance, according to the appearance of RT wave before the earthquake. |
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| Keywords: | The model (mechanism) of HRT precursor wave The PS100 high-precision geoelectric measurement system Cases recorded before more than twenty strong earthquakes Repeatability and regularity of HRT precursor wave Feasible of earthquake prediction |
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