| SRES A2情景下中国气候未来变化的多模式集合预测结果 |
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| 引用本文： | 姜大膀,王会军,郎咸梅.SRES A2情景下中国气候未来变化的多模式集合预测结果[J].地球物理学报,2004,47(5):776-784. |
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| 作者姓名： | 姜大膀 王会军 郎咸梅 |
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| 作者单位： | 中国科学院大气物理研究所竺可桢-南森国际研究中心,北京,100029;中国科学院东亚区域气候-环境重点实验室,北京,100029;中国科学院大气物理研究所竺可桢-南森国际研究中心,北京,100029 |
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| 基金项目： | 中国科学院知识创新工程重要方向项目 (KZCX3 SW 2 2 1)，国家杰出青年基金项目 ( 4 0 12 5 0 14 )，国家“十五”科技攻关项目( 2 0 0 1BA611B 0 1)联合资助 |
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| 摘 要： | 采用政府间气候变化委员会资料中心的模式预测结果，本文分析了SRES A2温室气体和气溶胶排放情景下中国大陆21世纪前30年的10年际气候变化趋势. 研究揭示：大陆冬季和夏季表面温度、表面最高温度和最低温度分别升高0.3～2.3℃、0.1～2.0℃、0.5～2.7℃，增幅大体上呈现东西向带状分布，由南至北升温逐渐加强，且增幅随时间加大. 此外，上述三气候要素冬季升温幅度要大于同期夏季、表面最低温度升幅要强于同期表面最高温度，冬季和夏季表面温度的季节内变化范围减小. 冬季东亚地区海平面气压异常幅度在-1.0hPa至0.4hPa之间变化，呈东西向带状分布，表现为南正北负、随时间推进异常幅度有所加大，正负交界面向南扩展；同时，东北、华北和西部海平面气压负异常较大. 夏季海平面气压异常空间分布与冬季相似. 2001～2030年，青藏高原大部、大陆东南部和河套大部分地区降水量增加0.1～0.8mm/d.
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| 关 键 词： | SRES A2排放情景 温度 海平面气压 降水 |
| 文章编号： | 0001-5733(2004)05-0776-09 |
| 收稿时间： | 2003-8-7 |
| 修稿时间： | 2004-5-24 |
Multimodel ensemble prediction for climate change trend of China under SRES A2 scenario |
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| JIANG Da-Bang , WANG Hui-Jun LANG Xian-Mei Nansen-Zhu International Research Centre.Multimodel ensemble prediction for climate change trend of China under SRES A2 scenario[J].Chinese Journal of Geophysics,2004,47(5):776-784. |
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| Authors: | JIANG Da-Bang WANG Hui-Jun LANG Xian-Mei Nansen-Zhu International Research Centre |
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| Institution: | 1.Nansen Zhu International Research Centre, Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100029, China 2 Key Laboratory of Regional Climate Environment Research for Temperate East Asia, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100029, China |
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| Abstract: | Based on the outputs as simulated by seven climate models under SRES A2 greenhouse gas and aerosol scenario, we analyze the decadal climate change trend of China during 2001 to 2030. It is revealed that the surface temperature, the maximum temperature, and the minimum temperature over China will rise by 0.3－2.3℃, 0.1－2.0℃, and 0.5－2.7℃, respectively, and enhancement magnitude is generally larger toward high latitudes and gradually enlarges with time march. In addition, the warming magnitude of variables mentioned above will be larger in winter than synchronizing summer, and the increase of the surface minimum temperature will be larger than the maximum temperature in the corresponding period, which leads to the smaller intra seasonal variation of the surface temperature. Sea level pressure anomalies over East Asia in winter will be confined within -1.0hPa to 0.4hPa and exhibit a zonal band shape distribution, with the positive (negative) values in south (north) parts. Moreover, the anomaly magnitude will become larger, and zero contour line will move southward with time running, at the same time with larger negative values in Northeast, North, and West China. Sea level pressure anomali es in summer will resemble that in winter. The results also show that summer precipitation will increase by 0.1～0.8mm/d o ver most parts of the Qinghai Xizang Plateau, Southeast China, and the Hetao re gion during 2001 to 2030. |
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| Keywords: | SRES A2 scenario Temperature Sea level pressure Precipitation |
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