| 2008年汶川MS8.0地震对周边断层地震活动的影响 |
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| 引用本文： | 邵志刚,周龙泉,蒋长胜,马宏生,张浪平.2008年汶川MS8.0地震对周边断层地震活动的影响[J].地球物理学报,2010,53(8):1784-1795. |
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| 作者姓名： | 邵志刚 周龙泉 蒋长胜 马宏生 张浪平 |
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| 作者单位： | 1. 中国地震局地震预测研究所,北京 100036;
2. 中国地震台网中心,北京 100045;
3. 中国地震局地球物理研究所,北京 100081 |
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| 基金项目： | 中国地震行业专项项目，地震预测研究所基本科研业务专项项目 |
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| 摘 要： | 为分析2008年5月12日四川汶川MS8.0级地震对周边断层地震活动的影响,本文首先基于Burgers体黏滞松弛模型计算汶川MS8.0级地震引起的库仑应力动态演化,分析认为2008年汶川MS8.0级地震在周边断层上引起的库仑应力显著增加的主要有四个断层段,分别为鲜水河断裂道孚-康定段、东昆仑断裂东段玛曲段、青川断裂和龙门山断裂南段.而且震后4年内黏滞松弛引起的库仑应力变化量可能与同震变化相当,相当于再发生一次汶川地震所造成的影响,因此震后效应在分析强震影响时不应忽略.本文基于强震引起的库仑应力变化动态演化,结合背景地震发生率、由Dieterich(1994)模型给出地震发生概率,结合相关构造地质、历史地震、余震活动等方面资料的综合分析认为,上述4个断裂段地震危险性由高到低依次为鲜水河断裂道孚-康定段、龙门山断裂南段、东昆仑断裂东段玛曲段和青川断裂.
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| 关 键 词： | 汶川地震 库仑应力变化 黏滞松弛 Dieterich(1994)模型 地震发生率 |
| 收稿时间： | 2010-02-01 |
The impact of Wenchuan Ms8.0 earthquake on the seismic activity of surrounding faults |
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| SHAO Zhi-Gang,ZHOU Long-Quan,JIANG Chang-Sheng,MA Hong-Sheng,ZHANG Lang-Ping.The impact of Wenchuan Ms8.0 earthquake on the seismic activity of surrounding faults[J].Chinese Journal of Geophysics,2010,53(8):1784-1795. |
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| Authors: | SHAO Zhi-Gang ZHOU Long-Quan JIANG Chang-Sheng MA Hong-Sheng ZHANG Lang-Ping |
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| Institution: | 1. Institute of Earthquake Science, CEA, Beijing 100036, China;
2. China Earthquake Networks Center, Beijing 100045, China;
3. Institute of Geophysics, CEA, Beijing 100081, China |
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| Abstract: | In order to analyze the effect of Wenchuan MS8.0 earthquake on the seismic activity of surrounding faults, we calculate the dynamic changes of Coulomb stress caused by the Wenchuan MS8.0 earthquake with a Burgers viscous relaxation model. Simulation result shows significant increase of Coulomb stress on four majors fault segments, which are Daofu-Kangding section in the Xianshuihe fault, Maqu section in the East Kunlun fault, the southern section of the Longmen Shan fault, and the Qingchuan fault respectively. Furthermore, the Coulomb stress change caused by the post-seismic relaxation during 4 years after Wenchuan MS8.0 earthquake is so strong that it almost matches to that caused by the co-seismic rupture. That is to say, the effect of the postseismic relaxation is nearly equal to that caused by the Wenchuan earthquake itself. This is a strong evidence that the postseismic relaxation is critically important so it should not be neglected on evaluating the effects of strong earthquake. Taking the postseismic effect into consideration, the probability of seismicity is evaluated by the Dieterich (1994) model based on the dynamic evolution of Coulomb stress and the background seismic rate. Combining the relevant structural geology, historical earthquake, aftershocks activities and some other minor factors, a comprehensive analysis shows that the seismic hazards on the above four fault segments are ranked from high to low as Daofu-Kangding section in Xianshuihe fault, the southern section of the Longmen Shan fault, the Maqu section in East Kunlun fault and the Qingchuan fault. |
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| Keywords: | Wenchuan Earthquake Change of Coulomb stress Viscous relaxation Dieterich model The rate of seismicity |
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