| 前期西太平洋暖池热含量异常影响长江中下游夏季降水的可能途经 |
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| 引用本文： | 祁莉,王晓芳,何金海,张文君,吴捷.前期西太平洋暖池热含量异常影响长江中下游夏季降水的可能途经[J].地球物理学报,2014,57(6):1769-1781. |
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| 作者姓名： | 祁莉 王晓芳 何金海 张文君 吴捷 |
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| 作者单位： | 1. 南京信息工程大学 气象灾害预报预警与评估协同创新中心, 气象灾害省部共建教育部重点实验室, 南京 210044;
2. 中山市气象局, 广东中山 528401;
3. 国家气候中心 气候研究开放实验室, 北京 100081 |
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| 基金项目： | 国家重点基础研究发展计划(973计划)项目(2012CB417403);江苏高校优势学科建设工程资助项目(PAPD);长江学者和创新团队发展计划(PCSIRT)资助 |
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| 摘 要： | 利用日本气象厅历史海温资料、NCEP/NCAR再分析资料、海表温度和降水资料，研究了1951-2010年前期西太平洋暖池（简称暖池）热含量异常与长江中下游夏季降水的关系，及其可能影响途径.结果表明，前期暖池热含量与长江中下游夏季降水存在超前2个季节的显著负相关关系，前期11-1月（即上年11月-当年1月，下同）暖池关键区（166.5°E-173.5°W，7.5°S-3.5°N）0~200 m热含量的偏低（高）对长江中下游夏季降水偏多（少）的预测有重要指示意义.前期暖池热含量异常的持续存在，及其外强迫作用激发的具有一定斜压性结构的夏季东亚-太平洋型遥相关（EAP），可能是影响长江中下游夏季降水的主要原因.暖池热含量在前期11-1月异常偏低导致其西北侧菲律宾异常反气旋形成并维持，夏季菲律宾异常反气旋向西北方向扩展加强，东亚沿岸EAP波列形成，使得长江中下游及其以东的西北太平洋副热带地区受异常气旋控制，且长江中下游地区为北方冷空气与南方暖湿气流的交汇区.同时，对流层高层东亚沿岸亦存在位置较中低层向西北偏移的EAP波列，长江中下游及其以南地区为异常偏强高压，高层辐散与中低层辐合相配合，有利于长江中下游地区对流发展和降水增多；反之亦然.
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| 关 键 词： | 西太平洋暖池 热含量 长江中下游夏季降水 前兆信号 遥相关 |
| 收稿时间： | 2013-08-01 |
The approach of the previous anomalous heat content in the western Pacific warm pool affecting the summer rainfall over the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River |
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| QI Li,WANG Xiao-Fang,HE Jin-Hai,ZHANG Wen-Jun,WU Jie.The approach of the previous anomalous heat content in the western Pacific warm pool affecting the summer rainfall over the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River[J].Chinese Journal of Geophysics,2014,57(6):1769-1781. |
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| Authors: | QI Li WANG Xiao-Fang HE Jin-Hai ZHANG Wen-Jun WU Jie |
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| Institution: | 1. Collaborative Innovation Center on Forecast and Evaluation of Meteorological Disasters, Key Laboratory of Meteorological Disaster of Ministry of Education, Nanjing University of Information Science and Technology, Nanjing 210044, China;
2. Zhongshan Meteorological Bureau, Guangdong Zhongshan 528401, China;
3. Laboratory for Climate Studies, National Climate Center of China Meteorological Administration, Beijing 100081, China |
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| Abstract: | The relationship between the previous heat content anomaly in the western Pacific warm pool (WPWP) and summer rainfall over the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River, and the way how heat content anomaly probably affects the summer rainfall are studied by using the historical ocean temperature analysis data provided by Japan Meteorological Agency, NCEP/NCAR reanalysis dataset, sea surface temperature and rainfall data. The results indicated that there is a significant two-season lead negative correlationship between the previous heat content of the WPWP and the summer rainfall over the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River, and it is an important indicator for prediction that the smaller anomalies of the 0~200 m heat content averaged from November to January in the key area (166.5°E-173.5°W, 7.5°S-3.5°N) are followed by more rain in the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River. The baroclinic East Asia-Pacific (EAP) teleconnection stimulated by the previous heat content anomaly for its persistence in the WPWP may be the main reason that influences the summer rainfall in the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River. The negative heat content anomaly between the previous November and January in the key area leads to the formation and persistence of anomalous Philippine Sea anticyclone. In summer, the anticyclone expands northwestward and strengthens, and then the EAP teleconnection appears along the East Asian coast, which makes the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River and the area to its east in the Northwest Pacific subtropical region under the control of anomalous cyclone, and thus the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River becomes the area where cold air from the North and warm air from the South join together. At the same time, there exists a wave train of EAP pattern in the upper troposphere tilting to northwest compared to the middle and lower troposphere, so that the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River and the area to its south is under the control of anomalously stronger high, which is conducive to more rain in the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River with upper tropospheric divergence as well as middle and lower tropospheric convergence, and vice versa. |
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| Keywords: | Western Pacific warm pool Heat content Summer rainfall over the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River Precursory signal Teleconnection |
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