Predicting Diel,Diurnal and Nocturnal Dynamics of Dissolved Oxygen and Chlorophyll‐a Using Regression Models and Neural Networks |
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| Authors: | Nusret Karakaya Fatih Evrendilek Kerem Gungor Deniz Onal |
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| Institution: | 1. Department of Environmental Engineering, Abant Izzet Baysal University, Golkoy Campus, Bolu, Turkey;2. Department of Biology, Middle East Technical University, Ankara, Turkey |
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| Abstract: | Human‐induced and natural interruptions with continuous streams of observational data necessitate the development of gap‐filling and prediction strategies towards better understanding, monitoring and management of aquatic systems. This study quantified the efficacy of multiple non‐linear regression (MNLR) versus artificial neural network (ANN) models as well as the temporal partitioning of diurnal versus nocturnal data for the predictions of chlorophyll‐a (chl‐a) and dissolved oxygen (DO) dynamics. The temporal partitioning increased the predictive performances of the best MNLR models of diurnal DO by 45% and nocturnal DO by 4%, relative to the best diel MNLR model of diel DO ($r_{{\rm adj}}^{2} = 68.8\%$ ). The ANN‐based predictions had a higher predictive power than the MNLR‐based predictions for both chl‐a and DO except for diurnal DO dynamics. The best ANNs based on independent validations were multilayer perceptron (MLP) for diel chl‐a, generalized feedforward (GFF) for diurnal and nocturnal chl‐a, MLP for diel DO, GFF for diurnal DO, and MLP for nocturnal DO. |
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| Keywords: | Data‐driven modeling Lake water quality Non‐linear dynamics Time series data |
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