BET_VH: a probabilistic tool for long-term volcanic hazard assessment |
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| Authors: | Warner Marzocchi Laura Sandri Jacopo Selva |
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| Institution: | (1) Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia, Via di Vigna Murata 605, 00143 Rome, Italy;(2) Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia, Bologna, Italy |
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| Abstract: | In this paper, we illustrate a Bayesian Event Tree to estimate Volcanic Hazard (BET_VH). The procedure enables us to calculate
the probability of any kind of long-term hazardous event for which we are interested, accounting for the intrinsic stochastic
nature of volcanic eruptions and our limited knowledge regarding related processes. For the input, the code incorporates results
from numerical models simulating the impact of hazardous volcanic phenomena on an area and data from the eruptive history.
For the output, the code provides a wide and exhaustive set of spatiotemporal probabilities of different events; these probabilities
are estimated by means of a Bayesian approach that allows all uncertainties to be properly accounted for. The code is able
to deal with many eruptive settings simultaneously, weighting each with its own probability of occurrence. In a companion
paper, we give a detailed example of application of this tool to the Campi Flegrei caldera, in order to estimate the hazard
from tephra fall. |
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