| 基于GIS的地震灾害损失预测 |
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| 引用本文： | 胡明清,石玉成,秋仁东,何丽君.基于GIS的地震灾害损失预测[J].高原地震,2007,19(4):25-32. |
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| 作者姓名： | 胡明清 石玉成 秋仁东 何丽君 |
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| 作者单位： | 中国地震局兰州地震研究所,甘肃,兰州,730000 |
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| 基金项目： | 甘肃省科技公关项目(2GSO54-A44-015)资助 |
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| 摘 要： | 在地震危险性分析及建筑物和生命等的易损性分析的基础上，预测未来地震造成自然和人工建筑环境的灾害及其损失，这是地震灾害及其损失研究的基本思路。本文基于宏观经济指标的地震灾害损失预测模型，以2000年全国不变价格计算的人均GDP作为地震宏观易损性的分类指标，以某市（A、B县）为例进行未来15年地震灾害损失预测。其预测结果包括两大部分：县行政区预测结果和网格预测结果，其预测结果可以为确定地震重点监视防御区提供参考依据。
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| 关 键 词： | 易损性 震害预测 人均GDP |
| 文章编号： | 1005-586X(2007)04-0025-08 |
| 修稿时间： | 2007年9月20日 |
EARTHQUAKE DISASTER LOSS PREDICTION BASED ON GIS TECHNOLOGY |
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| HU Ming-qing,SHI Yu-cheng,QIU Ren-dong,HE Li-jun.EARTHQUAKE DISASTER LOSS PREDICTION BASED ON GIS TECHNOLOGY[J].Plateau Earthquake Research,2007,19(4):25-32. |
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| Authors: | HU Ming-qing SHI Yu-cheng QIU Ren-dong HE Li-jun |
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| Institution: | HU Ming - qing, SHI Yu - cheng, QIU Ren - dong, HE Li - jun ( Lanzhou Institute of Seismology, CEA, Lanzhou 730000, China ) |
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| Abstract: | On the basis of the seismic risk analysis,and building and the lives of vulnerability analysis,predicting the natural and artificial built environment disasters and the loss which are caused by the earthquake is a basic research idea.Basing on the earthquake disaster loss prediction model of the macroeconomic indicators,the paper adopts GDP per capita which is calculated by using the 2000 national constant price as the earthquake vulnerability of macroeconomic classified indicators,and predicts the loss of earthquake disasters based a city(A,B Counties) as an example for the next 15 years.The results are county administrative region predicting results and grid predicting results,which could provide references for determining seismic monitoring key defensive zone. |
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| Keywords: | Vulnerability Disaster prediction GDP per capita |
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