| 基于公里网格单元的地震滑坡人员死亡率评估模型——以2014年鲁甸MS6.5地震为例 |
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| 引用本文： | 白仙富,聂高众,戴雨芡,余庆坤,罗伟东,叶燎原.基于公里网格单元的地震滑坡人员死亡率评估模型——以2014年鲁甸MS6.5地震为例[J].地震研究,2021,44(1):87-95. |
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| 作者姓名： | 白仙富 聂高众 戴雨芡 余庆坤 罗伟东 叶燎原 |
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| 作者单位： | 云南师范大学地理学部,云南昆明650500;云南省地震局,云南昆明650224;中国地震局地质研究所,北京100029;云南师范大学地理学部,云南昆明650500;云南省地震局,云南昆明650224 |
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| 基金项目： | 云南省地震局科技专项(2018ZX03);国家重点研发计划项目(2018YFC1504503);大中城市地震灾害情景构建重点专项(2016QJGJ09)联合资助。 |
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| 摘 要： | 为提高地震人员伤亡预评估的准确性,完善地震灾害损失评估模型,科学评估地震地质灾害可能造成的人员伤亡数量,以2014年鲁甸MS6.5地震滑坡人员死亡数据为样本,建立了一种基于公里网格单元的地震滑坡人员死亡率logistic回归模型。采用F检验法对所建模型的合理性进行检验,计算得到的F值无限接近于1,表明模型无限接近于完全模型,具有极好的数学统计意义。根据模型评估的死亡率反演得到鲁甸地震灾区滑坡致死人数为233人,比实际少17人,总精确度为93.20%,实际死亡人数与模型识别人数在空间上也有很好的一致性,说明计算得到的地震滑坡人员死亡率是实际死亡人数的良好指标。
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| 关 键 词： | 地震滑坡 人员死亡率 logistic模型 公里网格 鲁甸地震 |
Modeling and Testing Earthquake-induced Landslide Casualty Rate Based on a Grid in a Kilometer Scale:Taking the 2014 Yunnan Ludian MS6.5 Earthquake as a Case |
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| BAI Xianfu,NIE Gaozhong,DAI Yuqian,YU Qingkun,LUO Weidong,YE Liaoyuan.Modeling and Testing Earthquake-induced Landslide Casualty Rate Based on a Grid in a Kilometer Scale:Taking the 2014 Yunnan Ludian MS6.5 Earthquake as a Case[J].Journal of Seismological Research,2021,44(1):87-95. |
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| Authors: | BAI Xianfu NIE Gaozhong DAI Yuqian YU Qingkun LUO Weidong YE Liaoyuan |
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| Institution: | (Faculty of Geography Science,Yunnan Normal University,Kunming 650500,Yunnan,China;Yunnan Earthquake Agency,Kunming 650224,Yunnan,China;Institute of Geology,China Earthquake Administration,Beijing 100029,China) |
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| Abstract: | To improve the accuracy of earthquake casualty assessment,we should improve the earthquake damage assessment system and scientifically assess the possible casualties caused by seismogeological disasters.For this purpose,we developed a logical regression model for earthquake landslide mortality based on 1 km×1 km grid cells using the death data in the landslides of the Yunnan Ludian M_S6.5 earthquake in 2014.F-value test was used to examine the model’s statistical portability.In the Ludian study area,the computed F-value was infinitely close to 1.This result proved that the model we developed is close to the real model in the Ludian area.According to the field investigation,the earthquake-induced landslides in the Ludian disaster area claimed 250 deaths,while we get 233 deaths by our new model,leaving the accuracy as 93.20%.Furthermore,the death places triggered by landslides are nearly consistent with the ones indicated by our model.This suggests that the computed earthquake-induced landslides mortality values are good indicators of real casualties. |
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| Keywords: | earthquake-induced landslides casualty rates logistic model grid in a kilometer scale Ludian M_S6 5 earthquake |
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