| 2003年民乐—山丹6.1级地震震情预警检验研究 |
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| 引用本文： | 刘小凤,张辉.2003年民乐—山丹6.1级地震震情预警检验研究[J].地震研究,2010,33(2). |
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| 作者姓名： | 刘小凤 张辉 |
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| 作者单位： | 甘肃省地震局,兰州,730000 |
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| 基金项目： | "十一五"国家科技支撑计划子专题 |
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| 摘 要： | 2003年民乐—山丹6.1级地震前,甘肃省地震局于9月20日提出了祁连山中东段地区6级左右地震短期预报意见,并采取了多种行之有效的短临跟踪措施,得到了中国地震局、甘肃省委、省政府的高度评价和表彰奖励。根据本次成功震例预报实践中积累的不同阶段预报指标体系,利用层次分析法,确定了祁连山地震带震情指标预警模型。依据预警模型及震情预警指标分层结果,将各类定量和定性指标转化为无量纲的以1～4表示的指标值,按成对比较法比较下层各指标两两之间对上层某指标的重要程度,计算权重向量,并对模型的整体层次进行一致性检验。研究结果表明,该地震前祁连山地震带震情预警值为3.1389,依据预警等级判定标准,震情预警级别为红色。
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| 关 键 词： | 民乐-山丹6.1级地震 预警模型 指标 预警检验 |
Study on the Early Warning Verification of Seismic Situation of the Minle-Shandan 6.1 Earthquake in 2003 |
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| LIU Xiao-feng,ZHANG Hui.Study on the Early Warning Verification of Seismic Situation of the Minle-Shandan 6.1 Earthquake in 2003[J].Journal of Seismological Research,2010,33(2). |
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| Authors: | LIU Xiao-feng ZHANG Hui |
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| Institution: | LIU Xiao-feng,ZHANG Hui(Earthquake Administration of GanSu Province,LanZhou 730000 GanSu,China) |
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| Abstract: | Before Minle-Shandan M6.1 earthquake in 2003,short term earthquake prediction was put forward by Earthquake Administration of GanSu province on Sept.20 that about M6.1 earthquake would be occurred in middle-eastern segment of Qilian Shan Mountain,then some effective short-impending tracked measures were adopted,which gained highly appraised and commended encouragement by China Earthquake Administration,GanSu Provincial Party Committee and GanSu Provincial Government.Based on successful case predicted practi... |
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| Keywords: | Minle-Shandan 6 1 earthquake early warning model index early warning verification |
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