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中国大陆强震相近重复的50年周期及其对大陆西部强震趋势的预测
引用本文:黄圣睦,董瑞英.中国大陆强震相近重复的50年周期及其对大陆西部强震趋势的预测[J].地震研究,1997,20(2):157-169.
作者姓名:黄圣睦  董瑞英
作者单位:四川省地震局
摘    要:以中国大陆三十年代与八十年代强震对比证实,在各种相近重复周期中存在的五六十年的优势周期,1981-1994年发生的46次强震,其中有38次大五六十前(即1930-1943年期间)都曾相近重复发生过强震,其他8次强震主要分布在青海,新疆,西藏无重复发震记录,可能与三四十年代该区强震记录不全有关,按现有的资料上述两时段内50年相近重复震率达80%,本在讨论了震强相近重复的基本特征的差异性后认为,强震

关 键 词:地震活动性  地震  复发周期  中国  强震  地震预测

PRRIOD OF NEAR 50 YEARS RECURRENCE ON CHINA CONTINENT STRONG EARTHQUAKE AND TENDENCY FORECAST OF STRONG EARTHQUAKE IN WEST CONTNENT
Huang Shengmu,Dong Ruiying.PRRIOD OF NEAR 50 YEARS RECURRENCE ON CHINA CONTINENT STRONG EARTHQUAKE AND TENDENCY FORECAST OF STRONG EARTHQUAKE IN WEST CONTNENT[J].Journal of Seismological Research,1997,20(2):157-169.
Authors:Huang Shengmu  Dong Ruiying
Abstract:Through comparison of strong earthquakes in China Continent occurred in 1930s and 1980s, it is proved that there exists a dominant period about 50 and 60 years in various near recurrence periods. There happened 46 strong earthquakes in 1981-1994, 38 of which had recurrence of strong earthquakes 50-60 years before (namely 1930-1943), and 8 of which mainly occurred in Qinghai, Xinjiang and Tibet that no recurrence recorded, probably related with the uncompleted records in these areas in 1930s and 1940s. According to the present data, the recurrence rate of near 50 years period in above two time intervals reaches as many as 80%. After discussing the basic features and differences of near recurrence of strong earthquakes, it is considered that the study of near recurrene pattern of strong earthquakes can probably provide important evidences for long-medium term strong earthquake predictions in some regions.
Keywords:seismic activity  earthquake recurrence period  China
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