| 昆仑山口西8.1级地震后的强震趋势研讨 |
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| 引用本文： | 程万正,乔慧珍.昆仑山口西8.1级地震后的强震趋势研讨[J].地震研究,2002,25(2):100-107. |
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| 作者姓名： | 程万正 乔慧珍 |
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| 作者单位： | 四川省地震局,成都,610001 |
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| 基金项目： | 国家重点基础研究发展规划项目《大陆强震机理与预测》 95 130 5 0 5子课题资助 |
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| 摘 要： | 对我国大陆及邻区与西部地区1895年以来各地震期中地震能量主释放段分别进行了分析，各时期地震能量的主释放段的时长，均为7－8年；并利用各地震期累计地震频度的指数型分布模型分区拟合，得到各时期增长率；分析了2001年11月14日昆仑山口西8.1级地震后在川、滇地区发生强震的几率，最后对强震趋势和了预测研讨。
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| 关 键 词： | 地震预测 强震趋势 地震期 地震能量 地震活动 昆仑山 |
A Study of Strong Earthquake's Tendency after the Earthquake (Ms = 8.1) of the west Kunlun Mountains Pass |
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| Cheng Wanzheng,Qiao Huizhen.A Study of Strong Earthquake''''s Tendency after the Earthquake (Ms = 8.1) of the west Kunlun Mountains Pass[J].Journal of Seismological Research,2002,25(2):100-107. |
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| Authors: | Cheng Wanzheng Qiao Huizhen |
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| Abstract: | We have analyzed the main releasing terms of the seismic energy in every earthquake period since 1895,including China Mainland as well as the near area and the west of China.Each main term is about 7-8 years.We have fitted respectively using an exponential distribution model of the earthquake frequency in every period and got an increasing rate of each period.We have also analyzed the probability of strong earthquake in Sichuan and Yunnan Provinces after the earthquake(Ms=8.1)of the west of Kunlun Mountains Pass.In the end we made a prediction of the strong earthquake tendency. |
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| Keywords: | Earthquake prediction Earthquake period earthquake tendency |
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