| 关于地震预报科学思路,方法论及难点的思考 |
| |
| 引用本文： | 陈立德.关于地震预报科学思路,方法论及难点的思考[J].地震研究,1992,15(2):186-192. |
| |
| 作者姓名： | 陈立德 |
| |
| 作者单位： | 云南省地震局 昆明 |
| |
| 摘 要： | 中国地震预报的科学思路为整体观指导下的异常群体阶段性追踪预报模式。在方法论方面强调了宏观唯象方法的重要性,认为利用地震学、地球物理、地壳形变和地球化学等资料,采用统计识别的方法来寻找地震前兆、进行三要素预报是解决孕震过程这类复杂系统的较好方法。同时指出,地震成因、震源孕育物理力学过程、前兆成因机制、临震阶段起主宰作用的变量等是地震预报的难关所在。临震阶段潮汐力、气压、降水等这些平时视为干扰因素的变化,可能成为发震的触发调制因素。从而增加了前兆的复杂性,在排除干扰时应特别注意。
|
| 关 键 词： | 地震 预报 思路 方法论 |
CEREBRATION OF THE SCIENTIFIC GUIDE LINES,METHODOLOGY AND DIFFICULTIES INEARTHQUAKE PREDICTION |
| |
| Chen Lide.CEREBRATION OF THE SCIENTIFIC GUIDE LINES,METHODOLOGY AND DIFFICULTIES INEARTHQUAKE PREDICTION[J].Journal of Seismological Research,1992,15(2):186-192. |
| |
| Authors: | Chen Lide |
| |
| Abstract: | The scientific principle directing earthquake prediction in China can be expressed in terms of a model by which respective stages of the anomaly groups are traced for making prediction as guided by the view point of integrity. The importance of macroscopic phenomenological method is fully emphasized in regard to methodology. It is suggested that seismic precursors may be searched by making statistic recognition using seismological, geophysical, crustal defor-mational and geochemical data so as to predict the 3 key elements of a forthcoming event and to solve such sophisticated problems as the seismogenic process, etc. It is also pointed out in the paper that the difficulties in earthquake prediction lie in the understanding of the seismogenesis, the mechanic process of the development of the foci, the formation mechanism of the precursors as well as the determination of the variables dominating the earthquake-impending stage. The tidal force, atmospheric pressure and precipitation, etc in the earthquake-impending stage are regarded as noise factors in common situations, yet such factors may become the modulating forces to trigger earthquakes. All those multiply the complexity of the precursors, and should thus be dealt with extreme caution when filtering out the noises. |
| |
| Keywords: | Guide lines of earthquake prediction Anomaly groups Methodology Macroscopic phenomenological method Intersection in the pattern of "eggs and hens" |
| 本文献已被 CNKI 维普 等数据库收录！ |
|
