| 实现地震预测的可能性和地震预测技术的探索方向 |
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| 引用本文： | 高祥林.实现地震预测的可能性和地震预测技术的探索方向[J].国际地震动态,2005(2):25-28. |
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| 作者姓名： | 高祥林 |
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| 作者单位： | 中国地震局地质研究所,北京,100029 |
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| 摘 要： | 建议采用地震预测和地震预报两种含义不同的术语。严格的地震预测必须包括地点、时间、震级3个参数。用实例分析了在现代科学技术条件下预测这3个参数的可能性，认为总体上以一定准确度预测发震地点相对容易些，实现对发震时间和震级的准确预测的可能性较小，除有前震外，多数情况下对大地震作出完整的、精确的短、临预测还较困难。应对准震源和地壳内部过程，以发展观测技术和积累数据为重心，继续坚持地震预测技术的探索。
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| 关 键 词： | 地震预测 发震地点 发震时间 震级 |
Possibility of Earthquake Estimation in Advance and Its Exploration Direction |
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| Gao Xianglin.Possibility of Earthquake Estimation in Advance and Its Exploration Direction[J].Recent Developments in World Seismology,2005(2):25-28. |
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| Authors: | Gao Xianglin |
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| Abstract: | It is suggested to adopt two different terms: earthquake estimation in advance and earthquake prediction. In a rigorous sense, earthquake estimation in advance must include evaluation of three parameters of future events: location, time, and magnitude. Based on some cases, this article analyzes the possibilities of estimating these parameters under the current conditions of science and technology. In general, estimating the location of a future event is relatively easier, while evaluation of its occurrence time and magnitude is difficult. It is emphasized that the efforts to explore the earthquake estimation in advance should be insisted with the target focused on studies of seismic sources as well as the physical processes within the crust. |
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| Keywords: | earthquake estimation earthquake location occurrence time earthquake magnitude |
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