| 一个中国大陆地区7级以上地震判定指标被再次验证 |
| |
| 引用本文： | 陈学忠.一个中国大陆地区7级以上地震判定指标被再次验证[J].国际地震动态,2013(12):23-28. |
| |
| 作者姓名： | 陈学忠 |
| |
| 作者单位： | 中国地震局地球物理研究所,北京100081 |
| |
| 摘 要： | 笔者曾利用统计显著性检验方法给出了中国大陆地区5级以上地震年频次与7级以上地震发生关系的判定指标,他们是：①当5级以上地震年频次N5＜10时,其后第6年我国大陆地区将发生7级以上地震;②当5级以上地震年频次N5＞31时,其后第6年我国大陆地区发生7级以上地震的可能性不大.2007年,中国大陆地区5级以上地震年频次为6次,预示2013年中国大陆地区可能会发生7级以上地震.2013年4月20日四川芦山7.0级地震再次使前一个判定指标得到验证.
|
| 关 键 词： | 中国大陆 7级以上地震 判定指标 验证 |
A criterion of prediction for the earthquakes of Ms 7.0 in Mainland China verified again |
| |
| Chen Xuezhong.A criterion of prediction for the earthquakes of Ms 7.0 in Mainland China verified again[J].Recent Developments in World Seismology,2013(12):23-28. |
| |
| Authors: | Chen Xuezhong |
| |
| Institution: | Chen Xuezhong (Institute of Geophysics, CEA, Beijing 100081, China) |
| |
| Abstract: | The author of this paper had found the criterion of prediction for the earthquakes of Ms7.0 in Mainland China based on the hypothesis test of significance, which are （1） when annual number of earthquakes with magnitude equal to or greater than five N5 is less than 10, we could make the judgment that there would be some earthquakes with magnitude equal to or greater than 7 occurring in the following sixth year in Mainland China; （2） when annual number of earthquakes with magnitude equal to or greater than five Ns is greater than 31, we could make the judgment that there would be no earthquake with magnitude equal to or greater than 7 occurring in the following sixth year in Mainland China. In 2007, the annual number of earthquakes with magnitude equal to or greater than five is 6, it portends an earthquake with magnitude equal to or greater than 7 would occur in 2013. The April 20, 2013 Ms7.0 Lushan, Sichuan earthquake makes the first criterion be verified again. |
| |
| Keywords: | Mainland China earthquake with magnitude equal to or greater than seven criterion of prediction verification |
| 本文献已被 维普 等数据库收录！ |
|
