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地震预报回顾与展望
引用本文:张国民,张晓东,吴荣辉,江在森,刘杰,张永仙,李刚,黎明晓.地震预报回顾与展望[J].国际地震动态,2005(5):39-53.
作者姓名:张国民  张晓东  吴荣辉  江在森  刘杰  张永仙  李刚  黎明晓
作者单位:中国地震局地震预测研究所,北京,100036;中国地震台网中心,北京,100036;中国地震局地壳应力研究所,北京,100085
摘    要:回顾了古代的地震记录和研究,中国20世纪以来经历的几个阶段的发展进程和取得的阶段性成果,包括初期的地震考察、新中国的地震预报开展、地震预报的大发展、90年代新技术发展几个阶段,全面系统的总结分析预报实践的经验与教训,并展望未来地震预报持久科学探索的长远发展。

关 键 词:地震预报  回顾  展望

Retrospect of Earthquake Forecast and Prospect
ZHANG Guomin,Zhang Xiaodong,Wu Ronghui,Jiang Zaisen,Liu Jie,Zhang Yongxian,Li Gang,Li Mingxiao.Retrospect of Earthquake Forecast and Prospect[J].Recent Developments in World Seismology,2005(5):39-53.
Authors:ZHANG Guomin  Zhang Xiaodong  Wu Ronghui  Jiang Zaisen  Liu Jie  Zhang Yongxian  Li Gang  Li Mingxiao
Institution:Zhang Guomin~1),Zhang Xiaodong~2),Wu Ronghui~3),Jiang Zaisen ~1) Liu Jie~2),Zhang Yongxian~2),Li Gang~2),Li Mingxiao~2) 1) China Earthquake Networks Center,Beijing,100036,China,2) Institute of Earthquake Science,CBS,Beijing,100036,China 3) Institute of Crustal Dynamics,CEA,100085,China
Abstract:Archean earthquake records and research, development and fruits of earthquake f orecast in several stages since 20th. Century are looked back. The stages includ e initial earthquake research, development when China established, developing roundly and high technology development since 1990. There is a systemic summary of experience in forecasting practice. In the end, exploring earthquake forecas t is a persistent research, which is expected in the future.
Keywords:earthquake forecast  retrospect  prospect
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