| 地震时间间隔的统计分布及其地震危险度 D 值在华北大震前的异常变化 |
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| 引用本文： | 王炜,刘震华.地震时间间隔的统计分布及其地震危险度 D 值在华北大震前的异常变化[J].地震学报,1987,9(2):113-127. |
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| 作者姓名： | 王炜 刘震华 |
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| 作者单位： | 1. 安徽省地震局
2. 中国科学技术大学 |
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| 摘 要： | 本文探讨了华北小震时间间隔的统计分布规律,并且经过统计检验认为,它服从韦布尔(Weibull)分布,f()=-1exp-(/)].实际计算表明,地震发生方式参数一般小于1,说明华北小震活动呈续发性方式.本文利用可靠性理论中的一些成果,引入地震危险度函数D(t)=1-exp-(t/)],它表示 t 时刻内发生地震的概率.本文取 t=1d,将 D(1)称为地震危险度 D 值.得到自1970-1984年期间华北共发生的九次 Ms5.8地震前,震中周围区域的地震危险度 D 值,都出现一个明显的异常上升过程.文中还就,和 D 值与实际地震活动的关系,以及 D 值变化的稳定性等问题进行了讨论,认为 D 值是应力的函数.同时,可靠性理论中的其它一些参数,也有着与 D 值相类似的变化.
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THE STATISTICAL DISTRIBUTION OF TIME INTERVALS BETWEEN TWO SUCCESSIVE EARTHQUAKES AND ABNORMAL VARIATION OF THE D-VALUE,THE DEGREE OF SEISMIC DANGER PRIOR TO SEVERAL GREATER EARTHQUAKES IN NORTH CHINA |
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| Institution: | 1. Scismological Bureau of Anhui Province;
2. Chinese University of Science and Tcchnologe |
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| Abstract: | In this paper the statistical distribution of the time interval between two successive earthquakes is discussed, statistically tested, and shown that it obeys Weibull distribution f() =-1exp-(/)].Actual calculation results show that in general the seismicoccurence fashionparametre, the p-value, is less than 1.0. This means that the pattern of seismic occurence is successive. Using some results of the reliability theory, the degree of seismic danger function D(t) =1-exp-(t/)] is introduced, it is the probability of occurrence of an earthquake in timet. In this paper we let t = 1 day and call D(1) the degree of seismic danger, the D-value. The results indicate that the degree of seismic danger, the D-value showed a significant rising trend before all nine earthquakes of Ms5.8 in North China (1970-1984). The relation between , , D-value and the actual seismic activity, stability of the calculated D-value etc. are discussed. Besides, it is thought that the D-value is a function of stress. The other parametres of reliability theory have similar variations as the D-value. |
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