| 海城地震窗地震活动异常提取及其预报效能 |
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| 引用本文： | 薛丁,张建业,赵爱萍.海城地震窗地震活动异常提取及其预报效能[J].地震学报,2012,34(4):487-493. |
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| 作者姓名： | 薛丁 张建业 赵爱萍 |
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| 作者单位： | （中国呼和浩特010010内蒙古自治区地震局） |
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| 基金项目： | "中国近现代重大地震考证研究"项目 |
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| 摘 要： | 一个时间序列可以分解为趋势周期(含季节周期)部分和不规则随机部分.趋势周期部分是序列的潜在部分,它反映了增长、下降和周期影响的长期变动规律,具有确定性或可预测性；不规则随机部分包含残差、突然等因素引起的突变量,具有不可预测性.当趋势周期部分被确定后,它可通过计算得到.本文研究了1975年海城Ms7.3地震孕育、发生的断...
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| 关 键 词： | 地震窗 地震断层 地震活动异常 预报效能 |
Extraction of anomalous earthquake activity from the Haicheng seismicity window and estimation of prediction ability |
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| Xue Ding
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Zhang Jianye
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Zhao Aiping.Extraction of anomalous earthquake activity from the Haicheng seismicity window and estimation of prediction ability[J].Acta Seismologica Sinica,2012,34(4):487-493. |
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| Authors: | Xue Ding Zhang Jianye Zhao Aiping |
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| Institution: | (Seismological Bureau of Inner Mongolia Autonomous Region，Hohhot 010010，China) |
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| Abstract: | An original time series signal can be decomposed into a trend-cycle,including seasonal cycle,component and an irregular component.The trendcycle part is defined as underlying level of the series,and is a manifestation of medium-long term variation influenced by fluctuation and cycles referring to generally deterministic or predictable change of a series.The irregular component contains the residual variation and random abrupt changes,etc.,being unpredictable.Knowing the trend-cycle component,the irregular part can be calculated.Based on the investigation of the faults associated with the 1975 Haicheng M S 7.3earthquake,this study reasonably determined the area window of the Haicheng earthquake series.Then the time series of monthly earthquakesin the Haicheng seismicity window was decomposed.The trend-cycle component of the series was determined using ARIMA ( atuo regression integrated moving average ) model and the irregular variation was also extracted.The reaction of the anomalous abrupt variation to the M S ≥6.0earthquakes in North China and M S ≥5.0earthquakes near the seismicity window was analyzed.The result shows that the anomaly of abrupt seismicity variation may be taken as an indicator with prediction ability.This is of significance in earthquake prediction. |
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| Keywords: | seismicity window earthquake fault seismicity anomaly prediction ability |
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