| 地震预警系统的效能评估和社会效益分析 |
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| 引用本文： | 郭凯,温瑞智,彭克银.地震预警系统的效能评估和社会效益分析[J].地震学报,2016,38(1):146-154. |
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| 作者姓名： | 郭凯 温瑞智 彭克银 |
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| 作者单位： | 1.中国北京 100045 中国地震台网中心 |
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| 基金项目： | 地震行业科研专项201508007国家地震科学数据共享平台项目503130113国家科技支撑项目2009BAK55B05 |
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| 摘 要： | 本文从地震预警系统可减少的人员伤亡和可挽回的经济损失两个角度出发， 研究了地震预警系统的效能和社会效益. 通过对兰州市及周边地区潜在震源各个震级档的年平均发生概率进行计算， 并结合以兰州市为中心布设的80个强震预警台站信息， 计算了有效的预警时间及地震烈度. 基于生命易损性模型方法， 计算了地震预警系统可减少的人员伤亡系数； 采用基于宏观GDP的损失评估方法， 计算了地震预警系统可减少的经济损失， 分析了地震预警系统的社会效益. 计算结果表明: 减小地震预警盲区范围对提高地震预警系统的效能非常关键； 地震预警系统的建设和台网布局应重点考虑布设区域的人口密度、 经济情况及地震发生概率.
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| 关 键 词： | 地震预警 效能评估 社会效益 |
| 收稿时间： | 2015-04-10 |
Effectiveness evaluation and social benefits analyses on earthquake early warning system |
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| Institution: | 1.China Earthquake Networks Center， Beijing 100045， China2.Institute of Engineering Mechanics， China Earthquake Administration， Harbin 150080， China3.Institute of Geophysics， China Earthquake Administration， Beijing 100081， China |
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| Abstract: | This paper focuses on the study on the effectiveness of earthquake early warning system and social benefits from the perspective of earthquake early warning system’s reducing the casualties and the economic losses. Based on the calculation results of the annual average occurrence probability of potential earthquakes in each magnitude grade in Lanzhou city and its surrounding areas， we calculated the effective warning time and seismic intensity by using the data from 80 earthquake early warning stations in Lanzhou region. Based on the life-vulnerability model， we calculated the casualties coefficient by the early warning system， and then calculated the economic losses by the macro GDP loss assessment method. The results show that it is crucial for improving the efficiency of earthquake early warning to minimize the scope of blind areas. The construction of earthquake early warning system and the layout of station network should focus on the population density， the economic situation and the probability of earthquake occurrence of the layout areas. |
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