| 基于断裂两侧应变能积累的地震危险性参数估计—以1679年三河—平谷M8.0地震为例 |
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| 引用本文： | 刘培玄,李小军,赵纪生.基于断裂两侧应变能积累的地震危险性参数估计—以1679年三河—平谷M8.0地震为例[J].地震学报,2019,41(2):259-268. |
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| 作者姓名： | 刘培玄 李小军 赵纪生 |
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| 作者单位： | 中国北京 100036 中国地震局发展研究中心;中国北京 100081 中国地震局地球物理研究所 |
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| 基金项目： | 地震科技星火计划项目（XH17054Y）和国家自然科学基金项目（51608098）联合资助 |
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| 摘 要： | 本文基于断裂两侧应变能积累的概念，利用新夏垫断裂上探槽研究的古地震资料和1679年三河—平谷M8.0地震的历史资料，通过原地地震复发原则来评价指定断裂（段）在某一时段内的地震危险性，探讨其在未来一段时间内可能发生地震的最大潜在震级。由此说明现今应变能确定所面临的困难，而应用局部化应变（变形）与岩石-断裂系统局部失稳临界条件之间的联系，理论上可以由变形带的宽度减小率来预估未来地震的发生时间。
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| 关 键 词： | 应变能 最大潜在震级 局部失稳临界条件 地震发生时间 |
| 收稿时间： | 2018-09-06 |
Seismic hazard parameters estimation based on strain energy accumulation in both sides of a fault:Taking the 1679 Sanhe-Pinggu M8.0 earthquake as an example |
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| Institution: | 1.College of Architecture and Civil Engineering，Beijing University of Technology，Beijing 100124，China2.Development Research Center of China Earthquake Administration，Beijing 100036，China3.Institute of Geophysics，China Earthquake Administration，Beijing 100081，China |
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| Abstract: | Based on the historical data of the 1679 Sanhe-Pinggu M8.0 earthquake and paleo-earthquake data revealed by trenching on the Xinxiadian fault, together with the principle for earthquake recurrence in-situ on a fault or a segment, the maximum potential magnitude in the future on some segments of Xinxiadian fault is evaluated by taking consideration of the concept that strain energy accumulates on both sides of a fault. This illustrates that due to difficulty in determining the strain and stress in deep crustal rocks, the accumulated strain energy cannot be determined accurately. On the other hand, when the strain （deformation） localization is combined with the local instability critical conditions of the rock-fault system, the decreasing rate of deformation belt could be used for prediction of earthquake occurrence. |
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