| 我国部分地区基本烈度的概率标定 |
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| 引用本文： | 鲍霭斌,李中锡,高小旺,周锡元.我国部分地区基本烈度的概率标定[J].地震学报,1985,7(1):100-109. |
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| 作者姓名： | 鲍霭斌 李中锡 高小旺 周锡元 |
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| 作者单位： | 中国建筑科学研究院工程抗震研究所 |
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| 摘 要： | 文中根据对我国华北、西北和西南地区45个城镇的地震危险性分析结果,对中国烈度区划图上预报的基本烈度进行了初步的概率标定。结果发现区划图上所提供的基本烈度大致相应于50年内超越概率为0.14的烈度水平。 文中的计算是按照地震危险性分析的一般步骤进行的。以下是在实际应用中考虑的几个主要问题:1)根据地震地质条件和历史地震震中分布合理地划分潜在震源的位置和大小;2)确定与当前地震活动相一致的震级—频度关系;3)选用能够反映不同区域地质构造的烈度衰减规律。 本文结合图表对地震危险性分析的结果进行了分析和讨论。
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PROBABILISTIC CALIBRATION OF BASIC INTENSUTY FOR PARTS OF CHINA |
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| Institution: | China Academy of Building Research |
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| Abstract: | Based on the results of seismic hazard analyses for 45 cities and towns in the Northern, North-western and South-western Regions of China, preliminary probabilistic calibration of Basic Intensity, as predicted by the Chinese Intensity Zoning Map, has been carried out. It is discovered that the Basic Intensity offered by the Zoning Map is roughly equivalent to an average intensity level with exceeding probability of 0.14 in 50 years.The calculation in this paper have been done in accordance with the common procedures of hazard analysis. Some main points that should be considered in practical application are as follows: 1) Reasonable estimation of the location and extent of potential seismic sources by both geotectonis structure and distribution of historical epicenters; 2) Estimation of the magnitude-recurrence relationships consistent with current level of seismicity; 3) Choice and use of the proper intensity attenuation laws, which reflect specific geotectonic structures of different regions.The results obtained from hazard analysis are discussed graphically and tabularly. |
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