Integration degree of risk in terms of scene and application |
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| Authors: | Chongfu Huang |
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| Institution: | (1) State Key Laboratory of Earth Surface Processes and Resource Ecology, Beijing Normal University, Beijing, 100875, China;(2) Academy of Disaster Reduction and Emergency Management, Civil Affairs and Ministry of Education, Beijing, 100875, China |
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| Abstract: | Risk is a scene in the future associated with some adverse incident. Scene means something seen by a viewer, or felt by individuals
or various societal groups. Any risk assessment is to model some aspects of the scene for risk. Different aspects for assessment
leads to different scene. In this paper, we suggest the integration degree of risk to distinguish characters of risks with
respect to the aspects. The total number of factors of a risk system determines the macro degree and the granulation scale
for measuring a risk reflects the micro degree. A simple framework depends on the degrees provides an explanation of the integrated
risk. The most common model for risk assessment is available for the two-freedom-degree serial risk. A case studying flood
risk shows the application to explain what the risk is, where the information is incomplete and we use the information diffusion
technique to estimate the risk.
Project 40771007 supported by National Natural Science Foundation of China. |
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| Keywords: | Risk assessment Integrated risk Integration degree Flood risk Information diffusion |
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