Estimating landslide susceptibility areas considering the uncertainty inherent in modeling methods |
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| Authors: | Ho?Gul?Kim Email author" target="_blank">Dong?Kun?LeeEmail author Chan?Park Yoonjung?Ahn Sung-Ho?Kil Sunyong?Sung Gregory?S?Biging |
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| Institution: | 1.Department of Human Environment Design, Major in Landscape Urban Planning,Cheongju University,Cheongju,Republic of Korea;2.Research Institute of Agriculture Life Science,Seoul National University,Seoul,Republic of Korea;3.Department of Landscape Architecture and Rural System Engineering,Seoul National University,Seoul,Republic of Korea;4.Department of Landscape Architecture,University of Seoul,Seoul,Republic of Korea;5.Korea Environment Institute,Seoul,Republic of Korea;6.Department of Landscape Architecture,Kangwon National University,Chuncheon,Republic of Korea;7.National Institute of Ecology,Seocheon,Republic of Korea;8.Department of Environmental Science, Policy, and Management,University of California,Berkeley,USA;9.CALS,Seoul National University,Seoul,Korea |
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| Abstract: | Landslides are one of the most dangerous types of natural disasters, and damage due to landslides has been increasing in certain regions of the world because of increased precipitation. Policy decision makers require reliable information that can be used to establish spatial adaptation plans to protect people from landslide hazards. Researchers presently identify areas susceptible to landslides using various spatial distribution models. However, such data are associated with a high amount of uncertainty. This study focuses on quantifying the uncertainty of several spatial distribution models and identifying the effectiveness of various ensemble methods that can be used to provide reliable information to support policy decisions. The area of study was Inje-gun, Republic of Korea. Ten models were selected to assess landslide susceptibility. Moreover, five ensemble methods were selected for the aggregated results of the 10 models. The uncertainty was quantified using the coefficient of variation and the uncertainty map we developed revealed areas with strongly differing values among single models. A matrix map was created using an ensemble map and a coefficient of variation map. Using matrix analysis, we identified the areas that are most susceptible to landslides according to the ensemble model with a low uncertainty. Thus, the ensemble model can be a useful tool for supporting decision makers. The framework of this study can also be employed to support the establishment of landslide adaptation plans in other areas of the Republic of Korea and in other countries. |
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