Testing an earthquake prediction algorithm |
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| Authors: | Vladimir G Kossobokov John H Healy James W Dewey |
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| Institution: | (1) International Institute for Earthquake Prediction Theory and Mathematical Geophysics, Russian Academy of Sciences, Moscow, Russian Federation;(2) U.S. Geological Survey, Menlo Park, CA, USA;(3) U.S. Geological Survey, Denver, CO, USA |
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| Abstract: | A test to evaluate earthquake prediction algorithms is being applied to a Russian algorithm known asM8 TheM8 algorithm makes intermediate term predictions for earthquakes to occur in a large circle, based on integral counts of transient seismicity in the circle. In a retroactive prediction for the period January 1, 1985 to July 1, 1991 the algorithm as configured for the forward test would have predicted eight of ten strong earthquakes in the test area. A null hypothesis, based on random assignment of predictions, predicts eight earthquakes in 2.87% of the trials. The forward test began July 1, 1991 and will run through December 31, 1997. As of July 1, 1995, the algorithm had forward predicted five out of nine earthquakes in the test area, which success ratio would have been achieved in 53% of random trials with the null hypothesis. |
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| Keywords: | Intermediate-term earthquake prediction prediction algorithms testing and evaluating hypothesis null hypothesis |
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