Multifractal Analysis of Earthquakes in the Southeastern Iran-Bam Region |
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| Authors: | P N S Roy Amit Padhi |
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| Institution: | (1) Department of Applied Geophysics, Indian School of Mines University, Dhanbad, 826 004, Jharkhand, India;(2) Department of Geology and Geophysics, Indian Institute of Technology, Kharagpur, 721 302, W.B, India |
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| Abstract: | Earthquakes in Iran and neighbouring regions are closely connected to their position within the geologically active Alpine-Himalayan
belt. Modern tectonic activity is forced by the convergent movements between two plates: The Arabian plate, including Saudi
Arabia, the Persian Gulf and the Zagros Ranges of Iran, and the Eurasian plate. The intensive seismic activity in this region
is recorded with shallow focal depth and magnitude rising as high as Mw = 7.8. The study region can be attributed to a highly complex geodynamic process and therefore is well suited for multifractal
seismicity analysis. Multifractal analysis of earthquakes (mb ≥ 3) occurring during 1973 – 2006 led to the detection of a clustering pattern in the narrow time span prior to all the large
earthquakes: Mw = 7.8 on 16.9.1978; Mw = 6.8 on 26.12.2003; Mw = 7.7 on 10.5.97. Based on the spatio-temporal clustering pattern of events, the potential for future large events can be
assessed. Spatio-temporal clustering of events apparently indicates a highly stressed region, an asperity or weak zone from
which the rupture propagation eventually nucleates, causing large earthquakes. This clustering pattern analysis done on a
well-constrained catalogue for most of the fault systems of known seismicity may eventually aid in the preparedness and earthquake
disaster mitigation. |
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| Keywords: | Fractal multifractal geodynamics and seismicity |
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