| Study of Nonlinear Earthquake Flow Functions and Their Application to the Space Increased Probability of Strong Earthquake (SIP) |
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| 作者姓名： | Wang Xiaoqing and Huang DeyuCenter for Analysis and Prediction CSB Beijing China |
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| 作者单位： | Wang Xiaoqing and Huang DeyuCenter for Analysis and Prediction，CSB，Beijing 100036，China |
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| 基金项目： | This project was sponsored by the Joint Earthquake Science Foundation of China. |
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| 摘 要： | The definition and abnormality discriminatory criteria of earthquake flow function are introduced in this paper based on the algorithm of Space Increased Probability (SIP). Nine earthquake flow functions were defined by the method. The retrospect test that applied the SIP algorithm with the nonlinear earthquake flow function to 7 earthquakes, which occurred from 1975 to 1989 in Eastern China, with a magnitude of 6 or greater depicted that 6 of the 7 strong earthquakes (86%) were located in the SIP areas, and the SIP covers about 32% of the total research time-space domain. These suggest that the R-value, an effective scale for earthquake forecast, is 54% and may imply that the nonlinear earthquake flow function introduced in this paper can be applied to the intermediate-term earthquake forecast research.
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Study of Nonlinear Earthquake Flow Functions and Their Application to the Space Increased Probability of Strong Earthquake (SIP) |
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| Wang Xiaoqing and Huang DeyuCenter for Analysis and Prediction,CSB,Beijing ,China.Study of Nonlinear Earthquake Flow Functions and Their Application to the Space Increased Probability of Strong Earthquake (SIP)[J].Earthquake Research in China,1998(3). |
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| Authors: | Wang Xiaoqing and Huang DeyuCenter for Analysis and Prediction CSB Beijing China |
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| Institution: | Wang Xiaoqing and Huang DeyuCenter for Analysis and Prediction,CSB,Beijing 100036,China |
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| Abstract: | The definition and abnormality discriminatory criteria of earthquake flow function are introduced in this paper based on the algorithm of Space Increased Probability (SIP). Nine earthquake flow functions were defined by the method. The retrospect test that applied the SIP algorithm with the nonlinear earthquake flow function to 7 earthquakes, which occurred from 1975 to 1989 in Eastern China, with a magnitude of 6 or greater depicted that 6 of the 7 strong earthquakes (86%) were located in the SIP areas, and the SIP covers about 32% of the total research time-space domain. These suggest that the R-value, an effective scale for earthquake forecast, is 54% and may imply that the nonlinear earthquake flow function introduced in this paper can be applied to the intermediate-term earthquake forecast research. |
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| Keywords: | Nonlinear Earthquake flow function Space increased probability of strong earthquake |
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