| Study on the Seismogeny and Occurrence of Earthquakes by Using Pattern Dynamics |
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| 作者姓名： | Lan Congxin Xu Ping |
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| 作者单位： | Lan Congxin and Xu PingSeismological Bureau of Beijing Municipality，Beijing 100080，China |
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| 基金项目： | This research was the key project sponsored by the Ninth Five-year Plan (95-04-05-03-03) of China Seismological Bureau, China. |
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| 摘 要： | The mesoscopic damage dynamics and damage evolution have been applied to probe theevolutional process induced catastrophe in the earthquake activity.It is a new method.In thispaper,a brief introduction of the basic principle about damage dynamics and evolution ismade.At the same time,using the theory of the pattern dynamics we studied all earthquakes(M_L≥5.0)which occurred along Zhangjiakou-Bohai Sea earthquake belt in the capitalregion.The result indicates that the preparation and happening of the real earthquakes andthe theory are consistent.There are two kinds of evolutional model according to the finalstate,namely,global stability model(GS)and evolution induced catastrophe model(EIC).The two models haven’t evident boundary.The transitional zone exhibits the indeterminacyof the seismic process and the effect of the random variation.This research proposed newapproaches for earthquake prediction.
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Study on the Seismogeny and Occurrence of Earthquakes by Using Pattern Dynamics |
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| Lan Congxin,Xu Ping.Study on the Seismogeny and Occurrence of Earthquakes by Using Pattern Dynamics[J].Earthquake Research in China,2000,14(3):235-245. |
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| Authors: | Lan Congxin and Xu Ping |
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| Institution: | Seismological Bureau of Beijing Municipality, Beijing 100080, China;Seismological Bureau of Beijing Municipality, Beijing 100080, China |
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| Abstract: | The mesoscopic damage dynamics and damage evolution have been applied to probe theevolutional process induced catastrophe in the earthquake activity. It is a new method. In thispaper, a brief introduction of the basic principle about damage dynamics and evolution ismade. At the same time, using the theory of the pattern dynamics we studied all earthquakes(ML≥5. 0) which occurred along Zhangjiakou-Bohai Sea earthquake belt in the capitalregion. The result indicates that the preparation and happening of the real earthquakes andthe theory are consistent. There are two kinds of evolutional model according to the finalstate, namely, global stability model (GS) and evolution induced catastrophe model (EIC).The two models haven' t evident boundary. The transitional zone exhibits the indeterminacyof the seismic process and the effect of the random variation. This research proposed newapproaches for earthquake prediction. |
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| Keywords: | Macroscopic damage evolution Pattern dynamics Zhangjiakou-Bohai Sea earthquake belt Evolutional matrix |
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