Numerical Simulation of Earthquake Nucleation Process and Seismic Precursors on Faults |
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| Authors: | He Changrong |
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| Institution: | Institute of Geology & Laboratory of Tectonophysics, China Seismological Bureau, Beijing 100029, China |
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| Abstract: | To understand precursory phenomena before seismic fault slip, this work focuses on earthquake nucleation process on a fault plane through numerical simulation. Rate and state dependent friction law with variable normal stress is employed in the analysis. The results show that in the late stage of nucleation process: (1) The maximum slip velocity is monotonically accelerating; (2) The slipping hot spot (where the slip rate is maximum) migrates spontaneously from a certain instant, and such migration is spatially continuous; (3) When the maximum velocity reaches a detectable order of magnitude (at least one order of magnitude greater than the loading rate), the remaining time is 20 hours or longer, and the temporal variation of slip velocity beyond this point may be used as a precursory indicator; (4) The average slip velocity is related to the remaining time by a log-log linear relation, which means that a similar relation between rate of microseismicity and remaining time may also exist; (5) When normal stress variation is taken into account, time scale of such processes can be extended by 2 times. |
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| Keywords: | Fault Earthquake nucleation Friction Numerical simulation |
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