4-Dimensional Models of Deformation of the Earth's Crust and Earthquake Prediction |
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| Authors: | AV OvcharenkoInstitute of Geophysics Ural Division of the Russian Academy of Sciences Ekaterinburg Russia |
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| Institution: | A.V. OvcharenkoInstitute of Geophysics,Ural Division of the Russian Academy of Sciences,Ekaterinburg 620016,Russia |
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| Abstract: | Traditionally, when creating 4-D models of elastic offsets in the Earth's crust, the data from geodesic and GPS monitoring of offsets on the ground surface, earthquake catalogs, monitoring of the water level and radon content in wells, sea level fluctuations, as well as gravitational and magnetic fields, etc., can be taken as bases for information. In essence, the reason for creating a 4-D model of slow elastic deformations is to approximate the process by a set of plane deformation solitons (solitary waves). The parameters of a set of deformation solitons are obtained by a two-stage inversion. First, the parameters of the model are determined in a kinematic way by the use of a modified simplification of the method. Then, a calibration of the amplitude characteristics of the model is carried out in terms of elastic dynamic offsets. Taking Ural, Northern Tianshan, Greece, and China as examples, models for these regions are created on the basis of seismological, geodesic, deformation, hydrogeological, andgeochemical data.To visualize the model in real time, computer graphics of the deformation process of the Earth's crust and separately designed graphs of parameters of deformations at monitoring points are made. Based on the dynamic model, it would be possible to predict earthquakes. The prediction is founded on the detection of extreme values in a dynamic deformation field, the sum of which results in at least four plane solitons. Based on tests of the inversion in individual steps and on the whole, the accuracy of the model and predictions made by it is evaluated and some suggestions for improving the monitoring network of direct and indirect experimental data are given. |
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| Keywords: | Deformation dynamics kinematics model prediction |
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