| 具有动力学含义的强震动态图像预测方法研究 |
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| 引用本文： | 王行舟,王海涛,陈宇卫,黄显良,沈小七,缪鹏,陈安国,洪德全.具有动力学含义的强震动态图像预测方法研究[J].中国地震研究,2012,26(2):234-242. |
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| 作者姓名： | 王行舟 王海涛 陈宇卫 黄显良 沈小七 缪鹏 陈安国 洪德全 |
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| 作者单位： | 1) Earthquake Administration of Anhui Province，Hefei 230031，China;2) Earthquake Administration of Xinjiang Uygur Autonomous Region，Urumqi 830011，China;1) Earthquake Administration of Anhui Province，Hefei 230031，China;1) Earthquake Administration of Anhui Province，Hefei 230031，China;1) Earthquake Administration of Anhui Province，Hefei 230031，China;1) Earthquake Administration of Anhui Province，Hefei 230031，China;1) Earthquake Administration of Anhui Province，Hefei 230031，China;1) Earthquake Administration of Anhui Province，Hefei 230031，China |
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| 基金项目： | Fund Projects: This work was supported by the National Science and Technology Program of China Earthquake Administration ( No． 2006BAC01B02-01-05 )， Anhui Provincial Science and Technique Foundation ( No． 08010302204 )，and Joint Earthquake Science Fundation (A08077) ． |
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| 摘 要： | Seismic gap method is one of the effective earthquake prediction methods using seismicity patterns. However, this method has some limitations and uncertainty when using it singly in predicting earthquakes. This paper puts forward the prediction method using the dynamic seismicity pattern with dynamic implications. This method considers the formation and evolution of the seismic gap on the basis of plate movement and structural characteristics. Through analysis of 26 cases of earthquakes of MS≥5.0 occurring in East China and South China, this paper obtains the relationship between the main shock with seismic gap and active fault's location, as well as the relationship between the seismic gap and location and strike of active faults. Meanwhile, this paper provides a dynamic explanation of the differences in the formation and evolution patterns of the seismic gap between the two regions, thus providing the physical basis for and reducing the uncertainty of predicting earthquakes using the seismic gap method.
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| 关 键 词： | Seismic gap Dynamic pattern Active fault Plate movement |
| 收稿时间： | 2009/2/12 0:00:00 |
| 修稿时间： | 4/1/2009 12:00:00 AM |
A Study on the Prediction Method of Strong Earthquakes Based on Dynamic Seismicity Patterns with Dynamic Implications |
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| Wang Xingzhou,Wang Haitao,Chen Yuwei,Huang Xianliang,Shen Xiaoqi,Miao Peng,Chen Anguo and Hong Dequan.A Study on the Prediction Method of Strong Earthquakes Based on Dynamic Seismicity Patterns with Dynamic Implications[J].Earthquake Research in China,2012,26(2):234-242. |
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| Authors: | Wang Xingzhou Wang Haitao Chen Yuwei Huang Xianliang Shen Xiaoqi Miao Peng Chen Anguo and Hong Dequan |
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| Abstract: | |
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| Keywords: | Seismic gap Dynamic pattern Active fault Plate movement |
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