| 基于Molchan模型的乌恰地震窗预测效能评价 |
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| 引用本文： | 张琳琳,敖雪明.基于Molchan模型的乌恰地震窗预测效能评价[J].内陆地震,2019(1):8-13. |
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| 作者姓名： | 张琳琳 敖雪明 |
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| 作者单位： | 新疆维吾尔自治区地震局 |
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| 基金项目： | 新疆地震科学基金(201802);地震科技星火计划项目(XH19050Y) |
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| 摘 要： | 选取2008年1月～2017年6月新疆乌恰单台小震记录数据,分析了在■范围内M_L≥1.0的小震月频度的变化及其与研究区内中强地震的对应关系。同时基于Molchan模型对乌恰地震窗预测效能进行评价,主要研究结果:(1)当乌恰地震窗小震月频度≥175次/月,即出现异常高值时,多数3个月内其后均有M_S≥6.3强震发生。(2)小震月频度的异常形态表现为高值—发震或高值—低值—发震。(3)基于Molchan模型对乌恰地震窗的预测效能进行评价,结果较好,研究结果可以为新疆南天山西段震情趋势研判提供参考依据。
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| 关 键 词： | Molchan模型 乌恰地震窗 效能评价 |
EVALUATION OF PREDICTION EFFECTIVENESS OF WUQIA SEISMIC WINDOW BASED ON MOLCHAN MODEL |
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| ZHANG Lin-lin,AO Xue-ming.EVALUATION OF PREDICTION EFFECTIVENESS OF WUQIA SEISMIC WINDOW BASED ON MOLCHAN MODEL[J].Inland Earthquake,2019(1):8-13. |
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| Authors: | ZHANG Lin-lin AO Xue-ming |
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| Institution: | (Earthquake Agency of Xinjiang Uygur Autonomous Region,Urumqi 830011,Xinjiang,China) |
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| Abstract: | Taking single digit seismograph records of Wuqia seismic station from January 2008 to June 2017 based on the data of Wuqia single seismic window,we selected and researched the monthly frequency change of small earthquakes ML≥1.0 and the S^--P^-value of 10 s,as well as their relationship with nearby strong earthquakes.We made evaluation on its prediction effectiveness by analyzing the abnormal characteristics of the seismic window and the corresponding relation of moderate strong earthquakes based on Molchan model.The main results showed that:(1)when the abnormality with the monthly frequency of small earthquakes above 175 emerged,then following were the strong earthquakes of MS≥6.3,the advantage time for strong earthquake was within 3 months.(2)The anomaly patterns of monthly frequency for small earthquakes were characterized by high value-low-earthquake or high value-earthquake.(3)We evaluated the prediction efficiency of Wuqia seismic window based on the Molchan model,and the results were good,which can provide references for the study on seismic trend in the southern part of Tianshan. |
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| Keywords: | Molchan model Wuqia seismic window Effectiveness evaluation |
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