| 基于周期谱分析的线性合成概率预测方法在山东地区的应用 |
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| 引用本文： | 周翠英,李栋梁,钟普浴,华爱军,张凤环.基于周期谱分析的线性合成概率预测方法在山东地区的应用[J].内陆地震,2005,19(3):215-222. |
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| 作者姓名： | 周翠英 李栋梁 钟普浴 华爱军 张凤环 |
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| 作者单位： | [1]山东省地震局,山东 济南 250014 [2]潍坊市地震局,山东 潍坊 261041 |
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| 基金项目： | 王海涛研究员提供了方法计算软件,在本文完成过程中得到过王海涛研究员的技术指导,在次一并致谢. |
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| 摘 要： | 以基于周期谱分析基础上的线性合成概率预测方法,对山东内陆主体及其邻近的南黄海、冀鲁豫交界等地区中强以上和中等地震进行了试验性分析研究.结果表明,最初以新疆地区7级以上地震为例研究的强震预测方法,用于山东及其邻近区域的中强以上和中等地震也有较好的检验效果.对各分区的回顾性检验结果表明,方法的R值评分一般在0.6以上,最低为0.5.最后依据展望性预测结果对山东内陆主体区、冀鲁豫交界和南黄海地区未来几年的地震趋势做了初步估计.
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| 关 键 词： | 线性合成概率 预测方法 山东地区 地震 |
| 文章编号： | 1001-8956（2004）03-0215-08 |
| 收稿时间： | 2005-01-05 |
| 修稿时间： | 2005-05-10 |
THE APPLICATION OF LINEAR SYNTHESIS PROBABILITY METHOD BASED ON PERIODICAL SPECTRUM IN SHANDONG REGION |
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| ZHOU Cui-ying, LI Dong-liang, ZHONG Pu-yu, HUA Ai-jun, ZHANG Feng-huan.THE APPLICATION OF LINEAR SYNTHESIS PROBABILITY METHOD BASED ON PERIODICAL SPECTRUM IN SHANDONG REGION[J].Inland Earthquake,2005,19(3):215-222. |
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| Authors: | ZHOU Cui-ying LI Dong-liang ZHONG Pu-yu HUA Ai-jun ZHANG Feng-huan |
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| Institution: | 1. Seismological Bureau of Shandong province, Jinan 250014, Shandong, China; 2. Seismological Bureau of Weifang City, Weifang 261041, Shandong, China |
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| Abstract: | Author used the linear synthesis probability method based on periodical spectrum to analyzed the earthquakes above medium scale occured in shandong region and the south yellow sea, boundary region of Shandong, Hebei and Henan province, the result showed, the strong earthquake prediction method based on the M7 earthquakes occurred in Xinjiang had better test effect on the earthquakes above medium scale in Shandong and its near region. The test result of every section showed, its R value was higher than 0. 6, the lowest value was 0. 5. Author made a preliminary estimation of the earthquake tendency in the areas of Shandong, south yellow sea and the boundary area of Shandong, Hebei and Henan provinces about future several years according the outcome of prospect prediction. |
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| Keywords: | Linear synthesis probability Prediction method Shandong area Earthquake |
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