| 新疆地震趋势的模糊灰色预测 |
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| 引用本文： | 曲延军.新疆地震趋势的模糊灰色预测[J].内陆地震,1995,9(4):363-368. |
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| 作者姓名： | 曲延军 |
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| 作者单位： | 新疆维吾尔自治区地震局 |
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| 摘 要： | 从模糊数学和灰色系统理论两个不同角度来分析地震事件，把模糊数学的表达方式用于灰色灾变预测ＧＭ（１，１）中，建立了地震预测的模糊灰色模型。用此模型讨论了南北天山四个区（带）的震级序列，在等维情况下，对比了模糊灰色方法与单纯灰色方法的优劣，讨论了影响预测结果的因素，最后给出了不同目标震级下各区（带）的预测值。
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| 关 键 词： | 新疆 模糊数学 灰色系统 地震活动趋势 地震预报 |
USING FUZZY-GREY MODEL TO PREDICT SEISMIC TENDENCY IN XINJIANG |
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| Qu Yanjun.USING FUZZY-GREY MODEL TO PREDICT SEISMIC TENDENCY IN XINJIANG[J].Inland Earthquake,1995,9(4):363-368. |
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| Authors: | Qu Yanjun |
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| Abstract: | Combining the fuzzy mathematic expression with grey catastrophic predicting method GM (1, 1),seismic events are analyzed then. A fuzzy grey model for seismic prediction is set up to analyze the magnitude sequences that occurred in 4 zones in North and South Tianshan. In equidimensional conditions, merits and demerits of fuzzy -- grey method and pure grey method are compared. Factors that effect the predicting results are discussed as well. At last,predicting values of each zone for different objective magnitudes are given. |
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| Keywords: | Xinjiang Fuzzy mathematics Grey system Seismicity trend Trend prediction Model establishment |
| 本文献已被 CNKI 维普 等数据库收录！ |
