Ensemble flood forecasting: A review |
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| Authors: | HL Cloke F Pappenberger |
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| Institution: | aDepartment of Geography, King’s College London, Strand, London WC2R 2LS, UK;bEuropean Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecasts, Shinfield Park, Reading RG2 9AX, UK |
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| Abstract: | Operational medium range flood forecasting systems are increasingly moving towards the adoption of ensembles of numerical weather predictions (NWP), known as ensemble prediction systems (EPS), to drive their predictions. We review the scientific drivers of this shift towards such ‘ensemble flood forecasting’ and discuss several of the questions surrounding best practice in using EPS in flood forecasting systems. We also review the literature evidence of the ‘added value’ of flood forecasts based on EPS and point to remaining key challenges in using EPS successfully. |
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| Keywords: | Flood prediction Uncertainty Ensemble prediction system Streamflow Numerical weather prediction |
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