Hydrological impacts of climate change predicted for an inland lake catchment in Ontario by using monthly water balance analyses |
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| Authors: | Huaxia Yao Lem Scott Christiane Guay Peter Dillon |
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| Institution: | 1. Dorset Environmental Science Centre, Environmental Monitoring and Reporting Branch, Ontario Ministry of Environment, 1026 Bellwood Acres Road, PO Box 39, Dorset, Ontario P0A 1E0, Canada;2. Deceased.;3. Dorset Laboratory, Trent University, 1026 Bellwood Acres Road, PO Box 39, Dorset, Ontario P0A 1E0, Canada;4. Environmental and Resources Studies, Trent University, 1600 West Bank Drive, Peterborough, Ontario K9J 7B8, Canada |
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| Abstract: | Potential hydrological impacts of climate change on long‐term water balances were analysed for Harp Lake and its catchment. Harp Lake is located in the boreal ecozone of Ontario, Canada. Two climate change scenarios were used. One was based on extrapolation of long‐term trends of monthly temperature and precipitation from a 129‐year data record, and another was based on a Canadian general circulation model (GCM) predictions. A monthly water balance model was calibrated using 26 years of hydrological and meteorological data, and the model was used to calculate hydrological impact under two climate change scenarios. The first scenario with a warmer and wetter climate predicted a smaller magnitude of change than the second scenario. The first scenario showed an increase in evaporation each month, an increase in catchment runoff in summer, fall and winter, but a decrease in spring, resulting in a slight increase in lake level. Annual runoff and lake level would increase because the precipitation change overrides evaporation change. The second scenario with a warmer, drier climate predicted a greater change, and indicated that evaporation would increase each month, runoff would increase in many months, but would decrease in spring, causing the lake level to decrease slightly. Annual runoff and lake level would decrease because evaporation change overrides precipitation change. In both scenarios, the water balance changes in winter and spring are pronounced. Copyright © 2009 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. |
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| Keywords: | climate change hydrological impact inland lake water balance lake level boreal shield |
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