| Potential rupture surface model and its application on probabilistic seismic hazard analysis |
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| 作者姓名： | 胥广银 高孟潭 |
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| 作者单位： | Institute of Geophysics China Earthquake Administration，Institute of Geophysics China Earthquake Administration，Beijing 100081 China，Beijing 100081 China |
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| 基金项目： | Foundation item： Joint Seismological Science Foundation of China （104065） and Social Public Welfare Special Foundation of the Na tional Research Institutes （2005DIB 3J 119）. Contribution No.07FE3006, Institute of Geophysics, China Earthquake Administration. |
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| 摘 要： | Potential sources are simplified as point sources or linear sources in current probabilistic seismic hazard analysis (PSHA) methods. Focus size of large earthquakes is considerable, and fault rupture attitudes may have great influ-ence upon the seismic hazard of a site which is near the source. Under this circumstance, it is unreasonable to use the simplified potential source models in the PSHA, so a potential rupture surface model is proposed in this paper. Adopting this model, we analyze the seismic hazard near the Chelungpu fault that generated the Chi-Chi (Jiji) earthquake with magnitude 7.6 and the following conclusions are reached. 1 This model is reasonable on the base of focal mechanism, especially for sites near potential earthquakes with large magnitude; 2 The attitudes of poten-tial rupture surfaces have great influence on the results of probabilistic seismic hazard analysis and seismic zoning.
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| 关 键 词： | 潜在震源 潜在断裂面模型 地震风险 概率分析 |
| 文章编号： | 1000-9116（2007）03-0302-10 |
| 收稿时间： | 2006-01-20 |
| 修稿时间： | 2007-02-06 |
Potential rupture surface model and its application on probabilistic seismic hazard analysis |
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| Xü Guang-yin,and Gao Meng-tan.Potential rupture surface model and its application on probabilistic seismic hazard analysis[J].Acta Seismologica Sinica(English Edition),2007,20(3):302-311. |
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| Authors: | Xü Guang-yin and Gao Meng-tan |
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| Institution: | (1) Institute of Geophysics, China Earthquake Administration, Beijing, 100081, China |
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| Abstract: | Potential sources are simplified as point sources or linear sources in current probabilistic seismic hazard analysis (PSHA) methods. Focus size of large earthquakes is considerable, and fault rupture attitudes may have great influ- ence upon the seismic hazard of a site which is near the source. Under this circumstance, it is unreasonable to use the simplified potential source models in the PSHA, so a potential rupture surface model is proposed in this paper. Adopting this model, we analyze the seismic hazard near the Chelungpu fault that generated the Chi-Chi (Jiji) earthquake with magnitude 7.6 and the following conclusions are reached. 1 This model is reasonable on the base of focal mechanism, especially for sites near potential earthquakes with large magnitude; 2 The attitudes of poten- tial rupture surfaces have great influence on the results of probabilistic seismic hazard analysis and seismic zoning. |
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| Keywords: | potential seismic source fault rupture attitude potential rupture surface probabilistic seismic hazard Analysis seismic zoning |
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