Statistical simulation analysis of the correlation between the annual estimated key regions with a certain seismic risk and the earthquakes in China |
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| Authors: | ZHENG Zhoa-bi LIU Jie LI Gang-feng QIAN Jia-dong WANG Xue-quan |
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| Institution: | (1) Seismological Bureau of Anhui Province, 230031 Hefei, China;(2) Center for Analysis and Prediction, China Seismological Bureau, 100036 Beijing, China |
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| Abstract: | We have analyzed the correlation of the annual key regions with a certain seismic risk and the earthquakes in China from 1990~1997 by the statistical simulation analysis method. The statistical simulation analysis method is effective to deal with space-time heterogeneity of earthquakes and risk regions, the values of simulating random prediction probability have been got after 105 count, the objective results have been got by comparing average probability between the simulating prediction and the practical prediction. The results show: ( average probability of the practical prediction for the annual seismic key risk regions in China from 1990~1997 is higher than that of the simulating prediction by 0.037 19 using the method of pure random simulating risk regions; ( average probability of the practical prediction is higher than that of the simulation prediction by 0.021 83 using the method of simulating risk regions with the different probability based on the earthquake activity; ( average probability of the practical prediction is much higher than that of the simulating prediction by 0.209 62 in West Xinjiang region using the method of dividing the Chinese Continent into the three regions: West Xinjiang region, Southwest region of China and the other region. |
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| Keywords: | statistical simulation correlation earthquake prediction |
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