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Application of the predictable model of regional time-magnitude to North and Southwest China region
作者姓名:HUI-CHENG SHAO  XUE-SHEN JIN  XING-XIN DU
作者单位:Seismological Bureau of Shaanxi Province, Xi(an 710068, China,Seismological Bureau of Hebei Province, Shijiazhuang 050021, China
基金项目:地震科学联合基金;95-04-07-02-03;
摘    要:In this paper, the method which can combine different seismic data with the different precision and completeness, even the palaeo-earthquake data, has been applied to estimate the yearly seismic moment rate in the seismic region. Based on this, the predictable model of regional time-magnitude has been used in North China and Southwest China. The normal correlation between the time interval of the events and the magnitude of the last strong earthquake shows that the model is suitable. The value of the parameter c is less than the average value of 0.33 that is obtained from the events occurred in the plate boundary in the world. It is explained that the correlativity between the recurrence interval of the earthquake and the magnitude of the last strong event is not obvious. It is shown that the continental earthquakes in China are different from that occurred in the plate boundary and the recurrence model for the continental events are different from the one for the plate boundary events. Finally the seismic risk analysis based on this model for North China and Southwest China is given in this paper.

关 键 词:regional  time-magnitude  predictable  model  yearly  seismic  moment  rate  North  China  Southwest  China  probability
收稿时间:29 September 1998
修稿时间:4 February 1999

Application of the predictable model of regional time-magnitude to North and Southwest China region
HUI-CHENG SHAO,XUE-SHEN JIN,XING-XIN DU.Application of the predictable model of regional time-magnitude to North and Southwest China region[J].Acta Seismologica Sinica(English Edition),1999,12(3):321-326.
Authors:HUI-CHENG SHAO  XUE-SHEN JIN  XING-XIN DU  PING WANG  CHEN LIU  ZHI-HUI LIU
Institution:1. Seismological Bureau of Shaanxi Province, Xi(an 710068, China
2. Seismological Bureau of Hebei Province, Shijiazhuang 050021, China
Abstract:In this paper, the method which can combine different seismic data with the different precision and completeness,even the palaeo-earthquake data, has been applied to estimate the yearly seismic moment rate in the seismic region.Based on this, the predictable model of regional time-magnitude has been used in North China and SouthwestChina. The normal correlation between the time interval of the events and the magnitude of the fan Strong earthquake shows that the model is suitable. The value of the parameter c is less than the average value of 0.33 that isobtained from the events occurred in the plate boundary in the world. It is explained that the correlavivity betweenthe recurrence interval of the earthquake and the magnitude of the last strong event is not obvious. It is shown thatthe continental earthquakes in China are different from that occurred in the plate boundary and the recurrencemodel for the continental events are different from the one for the plate boundary events. Finally the seismic riskanalysis based on this model for North China and Southwest China is given in this paper.
Keywords:regional time-magnitude predictable model yearly seismic moment rate North China Southwest China probability
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