Probability-consistent earthquakes and probability-consistent conservative earthquakes |
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| Authors: | Jian-Wen Shen and Chang-Qing Cai |
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| Institution: | (1) Shanghai Seismological Bureau, 200062 Shanghai, China |
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| Abstract: | It is pointed out in this paper that the concept of scenario
earthquake, expectant earthquake or proposed earthquake suggested by Kameda Nojima (1988)
is not probability consistent due to unfit understanding for the aseismic design standard of
probabilistic method. The corresponding concept proposed by QI FENG LUO meets the
meaning of probability consistent, but it is still in a meaning of average so the result is not
good enough. On the basis of above analysis, a concept of probability consistent conservative
earthquakes is suggested. And a new method selecting aseismic objective earthquake with
physical meaning is proposed on the basis of probabilistic method. After seismic hazard is
analysed by certain control parameters, such as peak acceleration, we can determine the
aseismic standard according to certain probabilistic level. Based on the attenuation law and the
potential sources, we can find out some earthquakes or their combinations of magnitudes and
distances. Such earthquakes or combinations are probability consistent for this control
parameter. Based on above parameter, we suggest considering the destructive effects of other
parameters (such as response spectrum), and selecting conservative earthquakes to replace
the average earthquake and meet the requirements of aseismic design better. |
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| Keywords: | seismic hazard analysis probability consistent scenario earthquakes expectant earthquakes |
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