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| Average recurrence intervals of strong earthquakes and potential risky segments along the Taiyuan-Linfen portion of the Shanxi graben system | |
| 作者姓名： | 易桂喜 闻学泽 徐锡伟 |
| 作者单位： | Chengdu University of Technology，Chengdu 610059，China Earthquake Administration of Sichuan Province，Chengdu 610041，China，Earthquake Administration of Sichuan Province，Chengdu 610041，China，Institute of Geology，China Earthquake Administration，Beijing 100029，China |
| 基金项目： | Project Study on Methodology of Assessing Seismic Potential on Mildly and Weakly Active Faults in the program of Seismic Potential Assessment of Active Faults in Urban Areas，one of the 10th Five-year-Plan programs of the National Development and Reform |
| 摘 要： | Introduction In AD 1303, the great Hongtong, Shanxi, earthquake of magnitude 8 caused a very serious disaster, which killed over one hundred thousands people at least (Department of Earthquake Dis- *aster Prevention, State Seismological Bureau, 1995). On the occasion of commemorating this ca-tastrophe having occurred for 700 years, we have important problems that need to be answered: How long the average recurrence interval of the grea… |
| 收稿时间： | 28 October 2003 |
| 修稿时间： | 12 March 2004 |
Average recurrence intervals of strong earthquakes and potential risky segments along the Taiyuan-Linfen portion of the Shanxi graben system |
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| Yi Gui-xi , Wen Xue-ze and Xu Xi-wei.Average recurrence intervals of strong earthquakes and potential risky segments along the Taiyuan-Linfen portion of the Shanxi graben system[J].Acta Seismologica Sinica(English Edition),2004,17(4):426-437. | |
| Authors: | Yi Gui-xi Wen Xue-ze and Xu Xi-wei |
| Institution: | 1. Chengdu University of Technology, Chengdu 610059, China;Earthquake Administration of Sichuan Province, Chengdu 610041, China 2. Earthquake Administration of Sichuan Province, Chengdu 610041, China 3. Institute of Geology, China Earthquake Administration, Beijing 100029, China |
| Abstract: | Since the great 1303 Hongtong, Shanxi, earthquake of magnitude 8, 700 years have elapsed. To analyze the long-term seismic potential, this paper divides the Taiyuan-Linfen portion of the Shanxi graben system into 5 seismogenic segments. Based on data of historical earthquakes and GPS observation, the authors estimate mean seismic-moment rates and average recurrence intervals of strong earthquakes for the individual segments, and fur-ther analyze relative levels of current stress cumulation on the segments based on mapping b-values along the gra-ben system by using the network seismic data for the recent over 30 years. The main result shows that the Linfen basin segment has an estimated mean seismic-moment rate of 2.211016 Nm/a to 3.031016 Nm/a, and its average recurrence interval for M=7.5 earthquake is estimated to be between 1 560 and 2 140 years. For the Ling-shi-Hongtong segment, the estimated average recurrence interval for M=8 earthquakes is between 4 300 and 5 100 years, equivalent to having a mean moment-rate of 2.581016 Nm/a to 3.101016 Nm/a. The contour map of b-values shows that the two segments of Lingshi-Hongtong and Linfen basin have been being at low or relatively low stress levels, reflecting that since the 1303 M=8 and the 1695 M=7.5 earthquake ruptures, the fault-planes strengths of the both segments have not been resumed yet. And the other two segments, the Houma and the Jiexiu-Fenyang, have relatively high stress levels, and have been already identified as potential risky segments for the coming earthquakes from the analysis combining with the estimated average recurrence intervals of earth-quakes on the both segments. |
| Keywords: | historical earthquakes seismogenic segment moment rate average recurrence interval poten- |
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