| 大规模宏观异常的双重性及其在地震预报中的意义 |
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| 引用本文： | 刘成龙,车用太,王广才.大规模宏观异常的双重性及其在地震预报中的意义[J].地震地质,2004,26(2):340-346. |
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| 作者姓名： | 刘成龙 车用太 王广才 |
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| 作者单位： | 中国地震局地质研究所,北京,100029;中国地震局地质研究所,北京,100029;中国地震局地质研究所,北京,100029 |
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| 摘 要： | 宏观异常的大规模出现是地壳强烈活动的重要标志 ,常与其后的强震活动相关。中国多次强震短临预测的成功 ,在一定程度上依赖于大规模的宏观异常。然而 ,宏观异常也具有二重性 ,一方面可作为重要的地震短临前兆 ,另一方面也可能是由构造活动引起的 ,不具有前兆的性质。因此 ,在地震预报的科学探索中 ,应大力加强宏观异常的观察、观测、分析与研究 ,识别地震前兆与构造活动异常的区别 ,使宏观异常在地震预报中发挥积极的作用
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| 关 键 词： | 宏观异常 地震前兆 构造活动异常 地震预报 |
| 文章编号： | 0253-4967(2004)02-0340-07 |
| 修稿时间： | 2003年3月17日 |
DUALITY OF LARGE-SCALE MACRO-ANOMALIES AND THEIR IMPLICATION TO EARTHQUAKE PREDICTION |
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| LIU Cheng-long CHE Yong-tai WANG Guang-cai.DUALITY OF LARGE-SCALE MACRO-ANOMALIES AND THEIR IMPLICATION TO EARTHQUAKE PREDICTION[J].Seismology and Geology,2004,26(2):340-346. |
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| Authors: | LIU Cheng-long CHE Yong-tai WANG Guang-cai |
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| Abstract: | It is well known that the appearance of a vast amount of macro-anomalous phenomena is an important sign of strong activity of crust and is often followed by the occurrence of strong earthquake.Some examples of successful short-impending prediction of strong earthquake depended greatly on the appearance of a vast amount of macro-anomalous phenomena.The most famous examples are the cases of Haicheng,Longling and Songpan strong earthquakes.During the crucial moment of the prediction of these earthquakes,macro-anomalous phenomena had played an important role,which might not be replaced by micro-anomalous phe-nomena.It may indicate that the successful prediction of strong earthquake would not come true without macro-anomalous phenomena. However,in the period from May to June of2002,after a vast amount of reliable macro-anomalous phenomena coming forth in Xichang area,Sichuan Province,the expected earthquake did not occur.The analysis has shown that these anomalous phenomena are controlled by tectonic structure,and their distribu-tion bears a close relation with fault structure,and especially the anomaly of ground water has a notable tectonic attribute. This fact may indicate that the macro-anomalous phenomena are not equivalent to earthquake precur-sor,and they posses duality.On the one hand they can be regarded as an important short-impending earth-quake precursor,and on the other hand they may reflect the anomaly of tectonic activity,rather than the precursor of earthquake.During the development of earthquake prediction,therefore,the observation,analysis and study of the macro-anomalous phenomena should be greatly enhanced,so that earthquake pre-cursor can be distinguished from the anomaly of tectonic activity.In this way,the macro-anomalous phe-nomena will play a more and more important role in earthquake prediction. |
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| Keywords: | macro-anomalous phenomena earthquake precursor anomaly of tectonic activity earthquake prediction |
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