| 两次岫岩震群的特征及其预报意义研究 |
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| 引用本文： | 张卫东,许世昌,刘旭东,李涯,张秀梅.两次岫岩震群的特征及其预报意义研究[J].东北地震研究,2002,18(1):24-30. |
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| 作者姓名： | 张卫东 许世昌 刘旭东 李涯 张秀梅 |
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| 作者单位： | 大连市地震局,辽宁,大连,116033 |
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| 摘 要： | 本文对1988年1月、1999年11月岫岩两次震群的性质及序列特征作了较系统的分析和研究。结果表明：序列各项特征参数及预测指标都显示出了具有明确意义的预报信息。特别是1999年11月前震序的低b值、低h值及多台小震初动符号和波形特征的高度一致性和稳定性都预示着震源区应力的高度集中和稳定,也为短临预报提供了可靠的信息。此外,前震序列的频度分布的时间结构和能量释放的时间过程也明确显示出“密集－平静－发震”和“增强－减弱－发震”的特点。这种临震预报特征与海域地震前震活动的时空结构和时空过程十分相似。本文还讨论了两震群之间特殊部位发生断层贯通的可能性,并给出震级上限的估计。
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| 关 键 词： | 震群 序列特征 地震预报 b值 h值 前震序列 时空结构 |
| 文章编号： | 1004-2865(2002)01-0024-07 |
| 修稿时间： | 2001年5月1日 |
RESEARCH ON THE CHARACTERS OF TWO XIUYAN EARTHQUAKE SWARMS AND THEIR PREDICTABIE SIGNIFICANCE |
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| ZHANG Wei,dong,XU Shi,chang,LIU Xu,dong,LI Ya,ZHANG Xiu,mei.RESEARCH ON THE CHARACTERS OF TWO XIUYAN EARTHQUAKE SWARMS AND THEIR PREDICTABIE SIGNIFICANCE[J].Seismological Research of Northeast China,2002,18(1):24-30. |
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| Authors: | ZHANG Wei dong XU Shi chang LIU Xu dong LI Ya ZHANG Xiu mei |
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| Abstract: | In this paper,making a systematic analysis and researching the sequence nature and character of two earthquake swarms at the Xiuyan in 1988 1 and 1999 11 To analyse the result shows that all kinds of chararacteristic parameter and forecasting target of the sequence shows clear information to prossess forecasting significance especially,the foreshock sequence in 1999 11,low b value,low h value,and small earthquake first motion symbol and wavelike character shows high consistent and stabilization,presage high concentration and stabilization for the seismic source stress field Something more,time structure of frequency distribution and time process energy liberation for foreshock sequence shows a clear characteristic that"dense calm earthquake","strengthen lighten earthquake";and the character bear a resemblance to the time space structure and the timespace process of foreshock activity of the Haicheng earthquake In the paper,the probability to take place earthquake between the two earthquake swarms is discussed,and the evaluation of the biggest magnitude is given |
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| Keywords: | Two earthquake swarms of the Xiuyan Sequence characteristic Prediction study |
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