| Strategy and methodology of dynamical analogue prediction |
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| 作者单位： | REN HongLi（College of Atmospheric Sciences, Lanzhou University, Lanzhou 730000, China;Laboratory for Climate Studies, National Climate Center, China Meteorological Administration, Beijing 100081, China） ;
CHOU JiFan（College of Atmospheric Sciences, Lanzhou University, Lanzhou 730000, China） ; |
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| 摘 要： | In order to effectively improve numerical prediction level by using current models and data, the strategy and methodology of dynamical analogue prediction (DAP) is deeply studied in the present paper. A new idea to predict the prediction errors of dynamical model on the basis of historical analogue information is put forward so as to transform the dynamical prediction problem into the estimation problem of prediction errors. In terms of such an idea, a new prediction method of final analogue correction of errors (FACE) is developed. Furthermore, the FACE is applied to extra-seasonal prediction experiments on an operational atmosphere-ocean coupled general circulation model. Prediction results of summer mean circulation and total precipitation show that the FACE can to some extent reduce prediction errors, recover prediction variances, and improve prediction skills. Besides, sensitive experiments also show that predictions based on the FACE are evidently influenced by the number of analogues, analogue-selected variables and analogy metric.
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| 收稿时间： | 11 April 2007 |
| 修稿时间： | 4 June 2007 |
Strategy and methodology of dynamical analogue prediction |
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| Authors: | Ren HongLi Chou JiFan |
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| Institution: | 1. College of Atmospheric Sciences, Lanzhou University, Lanzhou 730000, China;Laboratory for Climate Studies, National Climate Center, China Meteorological Administration, Beijing 100081, China
2. College of Atmospheric Sciences, Lanzhou University, Lanzhou 730000, China |
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| Abstract: | In order to effectively improve numerical prediction level by using current models and data, the strategy and methodology of dynamical analogue prediction (DAP) is deeply studied in the present paper. A new idea to predict the prediction errors of dynamical model on the basis of historical analogue information is put forward so as to transform the dynamical prediction problem into the estimation problem of prediction errors. In terms of such an idea, a new prediction method of final analogue correction of errors (FACE) is developed. Furthermore, the FACE is applied to extra-seasonal prediction experiments on an operational atmosphere-ocean coupled general circulation model. Prediction results of summer mean circulation and total precipitation show that the FACE can to some extent reduce prediction errors, recover prediction variances, and improve prediction skills. Besides, sensitive experiments also show that predictions based on the FACE are evidently influenced by the number of analogues, analogue-selected variables and analogy metric. |
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| Keywords: | dynamical analogue prediction prediction strategy analogue correction of errors extra-seasonal prediction |
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