An integrated model to simulate sown area changes for major crops at a global scale |
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| Authors: | Wu WenBin Yang Peng Meng ChaoYing Shibasaki Ryosuke Zhou QingBo Tang HuaJun Shi Yun |
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| Institution: | (1) Center for Spatial Information Science, University of Tokyo, Tokyo 153-8505, Japan;(2) Institute of Agricultural Resources and Regional Planning, Chinese Academy of Agricultural Sciences, Beijing, 100081, China;(3) Key Laboratory of Resources Remote Sensing and Digital Agriculture, Ministry of Agriculture, Beijing, 100081, China;(4) College of Information and Electrical Engineering, China Agriculture University, Beijing, 100083, China |
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| Abstract: | Dynamics of land use systems have attracted much attention from scientists around the world due to their ecological and socio-economic
implications. An integrated model to dynamically simulate future changes in sown areas of four major crops (rice, maize, wheat
and soybean) on a global scale is presented. To do so, a crop choice model was developed on the basis of Multinomial Logit
(Logit) model to model land users’ decisions on crop choices among a set of available alternatives with using a crop utility
function. A GIS-based Environmental Policy Integrated Climate (EPIC) model was adopted to simulate the crop yields under a
given geophysical environment and farming management conditions, while the International Food Policy and Agricultural Simulation
(IFPSIM) model was utilized to estimate crop price in the international market. The crop choice model was linked with the
GIS-based EPIC model and the IFPSIM model through data exchange. This integrated model was then validated against the FAO
statistical data in 2001–2003 and the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) global land cover product in 2001.
Both validation approaches indicated reliability of the model for addressing the dynamics in agricultural land use and its
capability for long-term scenario analysis. Finally, the model application was designed to run over a time period of 30 a,
taking the year 2000 as baseline. The model outcomes can help understand and explain the causes, locations and consequences
of land use changes, and provide support for land use planning and policy making.
Supported by the Japan Society for the Promotion of Science (Grant No. GASR-A-073400000002), the National High Technology
Research and Development Program of China (Grant Nos. 2006AA12Z103 and 2006AA120103), and the Ministry of Finance of China
through Non-profit National Research Institute (Grant No. IARRP-2007-25) |
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| Keywords: | land use change crop sown area simulation crop choice global scale |
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