Application of the time-predictable model in Peninsular India for future seismic hazard assessment |
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| Authors: | Daya Shanker H N Singh |
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| Institution: | (1) Department of Earthquake Engineering, Indian Institute of Technology Roorkee, Roorkee, India;(2) Department of Geophysics, Banaras Hindu University, Varanasi, India |
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| Abstract: | It has been the belief among Earth scientists that the Peninsular Shield is aseismic, as the region attained stability long
ago. However, the earthquake at Koyna (10 December 1967), Bhadrachalam (13 April 1969), Broach (23 March 1970), Hyderabad
(30 June 1983), Khillari (30 September 1993), Jabalpur (22 May 1997), Gujarat (26 January 2001), and additional ones of smaller
magnitudes, altered this concept. This area has experienced many widely distributed shallow earthquakes, some of them having
large magnitudes. It is now widely accepted that seismic activity still continues with moderate events. Therefore, a need
has arisen to take into consideration recent seismological data to assess the future seismic status of Peninsular India. Earthquake
generation model has been studied to develop the statistical relations with surface wave magnitude (M
S
≥ 4.5). Five seismogenic sources showing clustering of earthquakes and including at least three main shocks of magnitude
4.5 ≤ M
S
≤ 6.5 giving two repeat times, have been identified. It is mainly based on the so-called “regional time-predictable model”.
For the considered region it is observed that the time interval between two consecutive main shocks depends on the preceding
main shock magnitude (M
p
) not on the following main shocks magnitude M
f
suggesting the validity of time predictable model in the region. |
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| Keywords: | seismogenic sources earthquake generation repeat time time-predictable model |
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