Strong motion uncertainty determined from observed records by dense network in Japan |
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| Authors: | Nobuyuki Morikawa Tatsuo Kanno Akira Narita Hiroyuki Fujiwara Toshihiko Okumura Yoshimitsu Fukushima Aybars Guerpinar |
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| Institution: | (1) Earthquake Research Institute, University of Tokyo, Tokyo, Japan;(2) Engineering Seismology Department, International Institute of Earthquake Engineering and Seismology, Tehran, Iran;(3) Shimizu Corporation, Tokyo, Japan |
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| Abstract: | The variation of ground motions at specific stations from events in six narrow areas was inspected by using K-NET and KiK-net
records. A source-area factor for individual observation stations was calculated by averaging ratios between observed values
for horizontal peak acceleration and velocity, as well as acceleration response spectra for 5% damping, and predicted values
using a ground-motion model (usually known as an attenuation relation) by Kanno et al. (Bull Seismol Soc Am, 96:879–897, 2006). Standard deviations between observed and predicted amplitudes after the correction factor are less than 0.2 on the logarithmic
scale and decrease down to around 0.15 in the short-period range. Intra-event standard deviation clearly increases with decreasing
distance due to differing paths around near source area. Standard deviations may increase with amplitude or decrease with
magnitude; however, both amplitude and magnitude of the data are strongly correlated with distance. The standard deviation
calculated in this study is obviously much smaller than that of the original ground-motion model, as epistemic uncertainties
are minimized by grouping ground motions at specific stations. This result indicates that the accuracy of strong ground motion
prediction could be improved if ground-motion models for specified region are determined individually. For this to be possible,
it is necessary to have dense strong-motion networks in high-seismicity regions, such as K-NET and KiK-net. |
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| Keywords: | Probabilistic seismic hazard analysis Attenuation relation Uncertainty of strong motion K-NET KiK-net |
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