Interpreting intraplate tectonics for seismic hazard: a UK historical perspective |
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| Authors: | R M W Musson |
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| Institution: | (1) British Geological Survey, West Mains Road, Edinburgh, EH9 3LA, UK |
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| Abstract: | It is notoriously difficult to construct seismic source models for probabilistic seismic hazard assessment in intraplate areas
on the basis of geological information, and many practitioners have given up the task in favour of purely seismicity-based
models. This risks losing potentially valuable information in regions where the earthquake catalogue is short compared to
the seismic cycle. It is interesting to survey how attitudes to this issue have evolved over the past 30 years. This paper
takes the UK as an example, and traces the evolution of seismic source models through generations of hazard studies. It is
found that in the UK, while the earliest studies did not consider regional tectonics in any way, there has been a gradual
evolution towards more tectonically based models. Experience in other countries, of course, may differ. |
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